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The National Institute of Statistics (INS) presented the data according to which, in the last two weeks, 4,969 new Chinese coronavirus infections were confirmed in Bucharest, reported to a population of 2,151,665 inhabitants. This statistic shows that the infection rate in Bucharest is 2.2.
The capital could enter the red scenario if in the next two weeks a total of 6,455 cases of coronavirus infection are registered, that is, an average of 461 daily cases.
According to Graphs.ro, which has already calculated that the average of a week is 406 cases, the distance that separates us from the disaster is still only 50 cases per day. It remains to be seen whether the measures announced in recent hours will succeed in stopping or even reversing the trend.
On the other hand, Dr. Octavian Jurma, who since the beginning of the epidemic has published several statistical models that have been correct, warns that Bucharest will reach a cumulative incidence of 3 cases per thousand inhabitants in the week of October 12 to 18. At this threshold, according to the law, the city of Bucharest goes into quarantine.
„It is almost a statistical certainty and there is nothing we can do to avoid it.“Says Jurma in the Facebook post.
„What we can prevent if we act today is to exceed the threshold of 750 new cases per day next week and 1000 new cases per day in 2-3 weeks.“Adds the doctor.
„This rate means that you have a 100% chance that one in every 500 people you know has been infected in the last 14 days.“, Warns the specialist.
According to the data published this Friday by the Strategic Communication Group, the situation in the regions where the incidence of coronavirus cases exceeded 1.5 cases per thousand inhabitants is as follows: Bucharest – 2.2, Alba – 1.98, Vâlcea -1.98, Iași – 1.80, Bacău – 1.72, Teleorman – 1.62, Neamț – 1.62, Vaslui – 1.59.
Above the rate of 3, a city must be quarantined.
Nicușor Dan: Bucharest as a whole is excluded from being quarantined
However, the local authorities of the Capital tried to reassure the population saying that a total quarantine will not be established, but at most by sectors. In addition, draconian preventive measures have been taken, with plainclothes police officers patrolling public transport and crowded places to verify proper use of the mask.
„The situation is dire, especially in Bucharest. It is estimated that 1% of the population has been ill over time. I believe that we can overcome the pandemic. Roughly that of index 3 (Bucharest is at 2.3-2.4). There is no legislative measure to reach threshold 3. The only rule refers to schools, which only go online when the index reaches 3.
We need to test more. It is not logical to close a city like Bucharest for just a few outbreaks. I exclude the closure of Bucharest. By isolating the lights we managed to overcome it. We need to strengthen collaboration with DSPs. In Bucharest, as in the whole country, the DSP is understaffed, we will do at Bucharest level an additional testing capacity compared to that of the Ministry of Health. We have two big problems: the functioning of the medical system and trying to limit the number of infections.“Nicusor Dan told Realitatea Plus.
„Even if we end up with that index of 3 in the next few days, this does not mean that Bucharest as a whole is going to be quarantined. If small neighborhoods have outbreaks, they can be quarantined. Bucharest as a whole is excluded from being quarantined. Since May I have been saying that I recommend wearing a mask outdoors as well. The Emergency Committee may consider wearing a mask in open spaces. We must also guarantee the social protection of those who cannot afford a mask, if we take this measure.”Added the new mayor of the Capital.
