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Alexandru Rafila, Romania’s representative to the World Health Organization, spoke to Digi24 about the large number of infections reported daily. The doctor says that he hopes that there will be a wave that ends at some point, otherwise “we can see an increase that will cause us problems.” Rafila considers that two scenarios could be considered: a stabilization in 2,500 – 2,700 cases or an increase that would cause problems.
Alexandru Rafila: I have a hope of mine, more than based on sufficiently concrete elements, that this increase of 2,000, 2,300 cases is practically the effect of the reopening of schools, not because the schools themselves are affected, but because with the opening of the school many other activities began to become more intense, more crowded: transportation was full, shopping, teachers moved, parents took their children to school. There are many things that are related to the opening of the school. Here’s the connection: activities intensify, transmissibility increases.
I hope it is a wave that ends at some point. If this is not the case, then we can see growth that is causing us problems. And then I would discuss two scenarios. If the situation stabilizes, say about 2,500, 2,700 cases, or if the situation does not stabilize and things continue to go bad in the coming weeks.
Scenarios at the beginning of the pandemic: from 100 accumulated cases over time to thousands of daily cases
We have to have options. At the beginning of the pandemic there were several scenarios: the first 100 cases, 1,500 or 2,000 cases, 10,000 cases, that is, they were scenarios that were not related to the number of daily cases, but to the accumulated number of cases, which raised certain problems to the health system. .
Now we are discussing the number of daily cases, with a cumulative incidence in the last 14 days, the resonance of these cases in the area of usual hospital care and in the area of intensive care.
Whoever thinks it is simple, is not simple at all. Think, for example, of the logistics of transporting 500 patients at a time, from home to hospitals in Bucharest, with ambulances, they have to be taken to the hospital, some are returned, there are ambulances waiting in hospitals … There are many things that are complicated.
“There has to be a bit of pragmatism”
It takes a bit of pragmatism. Let’s see what we do with the mild forms, which appear in young people, or asymptomatic people, to find a solution to not take them more and bring them from the hospital, if possible, to look for follow-up forms.
There must be a certain way of thinking that decongests the influx to the hospital. Of course, you can’t download any faster, because you can’t do them until the person is clearly in a safe area.
Publisher: Liviu Cojan
