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There are three theoretically possible hypotheses regarding the outcome in Bucharest:
one. Traian Băsescu wins the elections and is again mayor general. It is the only situation where you would be a clear winner, but it is also the least likely. Even he doesn’t believe in her, if we look at her latest interviews.
two. Gabriela Firea wins a new mandate. For Traian Băsescu, what is at stake is finding the culprit for the failure of the right wing. As exact measurements cannot be made, only public perception will identify it. Here is Băsescu and PMP’s theory, that Ludovic Orban and Dan Barna are guilty of rejecting an alliance with PMP, and Orban and Barna’s theory that the alliance’s rejection was due to the PMP-Firea card of the last 4 years. Băsescu is guilty, because he jumped into the fight and “stole” the votes of the right. Given the difference in electoral potential between the two camps, it is quite easy to guess what will remain at the level of public perception. Basescu will be left with only the taste of a personal revenge and that’s it.
3. Nicuşor Dan wins the mayor’s seat, despite Băsescu’s candidacy. This is, for the former president, the blackest scenario, because it would show that he has almost no electoral traction, apart from the fans he still has. It would be a pretty laughable end to a race.
Although he is listed as the most successful politician Romania has produced in the last 30 years, Traian Băsescu has not always been infallible in evaluating his chances. Let us not forget that in the summer of 2012, after being suspended by Parliament, he initially dared to ask Romanians to participate in the impeachment referendum, convinced that he would achieve a majority to reject the dismissal. It was then, along with him, Vasile Blaga, who brought him down: in the end he demanded a boycott of the referendum, which led to the non-compliance of the quorum.
But now Vasile Blaga is elsewhere. And I don’t know if anyone else from the PMP dares to bring down Traian Băsescu.
