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Romania will be quarantined again, believes public health expert Răzvan Cherecheș. But it will no longer be quarantine throughout the country, but in certain cities or even counties, where the number of cases of infections by the new coronavirus will increase significantly. The specialist also draws attention to the failure to comply with the rules imposed by the authorities, behavior that leads, he says, to a much more pronounced transmission of the new virus. So, Răzvan Cherecheș states that the authorities should consistently impose stiff fines. Now, this attitude is hampered by the electoral context, Răzvan Cherecheș, a professor in the United States and at Babes-Bolyai University in Cluj, explained to Digi24.
Only in a week will the effect of the opening of schools be seen and a much greater increase in cases is expected, says the teacher. It considers that the measures adopted were the appropriate ones, but unfortunately they were not imposed firmly enough.
Electorally affected pandemic
“There are still no fines for not wearing a mask in public spaces (…), the police are present, but they don’t give fines, they give warnings in the best of cases, because, otherwise, the fines would affect the intention of vote. And for the moment, from my perspective, the government’s priority is the vote at the end of the week rather than the safety of the citizens. Otherwise fines would be continually imposed, leading to the wearing of a mask, increasing the safety of citizens, “Răzvan Cherecheș said on Digi24.
Only after the elections will it suddenly be discovered that we have a serious situation, that the transfer rate is high and they will begin to take more drastic measures, he added, highlighting that this situation occurs in all countries where there are elections and where the measures do not. They are. they are drastic enough.
We will hit a “lockdown” again
“Unfortunately, the measure we have at our disposal is social isolation and my opinion is that we will move to social isolation by regions, counties, cities, where the positivity rate is high. We will get to a confinement again, I have no doubt here, because the appropriate measures are not yet taken, masks are not used in public spaces, the transmission rate increases, the temperatures drop, which makes people spend more a lot time inside and that’s why we have the seasonality of the flu. The flu is not transmitted because it is colder, like the coronavirus, but because people spend more time indoors, without masks, ”said the expert. He believes that when the rains and cold begin and people spend more time indoors, there will be a peak of “saw teeth” that currently characterizes the epidemiological situation in Romania.
“From the perspective of a public health expert, the best measure is the lockdown,” said Răzvan Cherecheș.
“We have 91 infections for every 100,000 people across the country in Melbourne, when they reached 60, they were blocked. We are still relaxed because we have options, not because the infection rate does not require more drastic measures. That is why I say that. after the elections we must expect more drastic measures. We have no choice, the infection rate is constantly increasing“Said the public health expert.
For some, the measures should be clear: good, good, good.
He believes that sanctions and a campaign to persuade the population must complement each other. “We are in exactly the same situation as wearing a seatbelt. If you explain to citizens that wearing a seatbelt saves lives in 50 percent of situations, it will be citizens who wear a seatbelt in a disciplined way, because understand the risks they are exposed to. Others will wear a seatbelt just because they run the risk of receiving a fine. Exactly the same here: we will have citizens who, if it is communicated clearly and it is a continuous communication campaign about how to protect themselves, what can do, they will be responsible, they will wear a mask, they will stay away from others they will wash and disinfect their hands. While for others the measures must be clear: good, good, good. But both measures must be taken, “explained Răzvan Cherecheș .
“I tell them what I would do if I were a politician and tried to be elected, but at the same time to protect the population: the day after I was elected, I would start giving very bad fines for not wearing a mask. For a week. Scare the population. So I would say: the situation is under control, as they say even now, although all the numbers say something completely different. And then, I would pull the strings again until the December elections and hope that the situation does not get worse, “said the expert.
How appropriate is the “Swedish model”?
“Now we pay the costs because for 20 years there has been no health education in schools and we have a population that has no education in basic hygiene measures,” added the expert.
“Everybody says that in Sweden look how well they got! Yes, but there they have an educated, disciplined population that maintains their social distance, because they have a different culture. We are a much friendlier culture, more puppet, we hug each other more, we touch each other more, like Italians, that is why the risk of transmission is greater ”, said the university professor. “My opinion is that this strategy was appropriate for their culture and level of education,” Răzvan Cherecheș said of the “Swedish model”.
He recalled that five years ago the main social problem of the Swedes was the loneliness of the elderly. When the pandemic arrived, this loneliness protected them, because there was a social gap around them. On the other hand, “they have increased their mortality for a shorter period, while in our country they continue to die,” the expert commented on the observation that Swedes still have high mortality rates, especially among the elderly in nursing homes.
We will not get rid of this virus
“We must be aware: even if the vaccine comes out, we will not be able to protect the entire population, with this virus we will continue to live for a long time. At six months, a year, we will probably have to revaccinate. The virus will continue to exist in the unvaccinated population. So we will not get rid of this virus, it is here to stay. Therefore, from this point of view, the approach of the Swedes was pragmatic, in which they said: OK, we do group immunity, now we pay a higher cost. And his approach is one of individual responsibility: if you are vulnerable, get vaccinated ”, added the expert.
Scenarios for schools, hybrid education are good measures, but Plexiglas displays are “an unfortunate idea”, a fairly cosmetic measure. In some schools we will see an explosion of cases, in other schools it will be fine, depending on how much the administration of those schools was involved and how seriously they took the recommendations. Schools should have received clear protocols and scenarios to have time to respond, the expert said.
As for the elections, the election itself does not present any risk, if you follow the rules, it is like shopping: you put on a mask, you keep your distance. “Nobody walks into the voting booth and starts licking their fingers taking off their mask. You left the polling station, you disinfect your hands. It’s so simple, “Cherecheș said.
Fake news, the biggest negative impact
He says that the best measure that has been taken so far has been the use of a mask, and what massively affected the transmission of the virus was the false internet campaign, which was not duly countered by official channels. It had to be a continuous and persistent information campaign. Fake news campaigns had the biggest negative effect, according to Răzvan Cherecheș.
Demonstrations like the one on Saturday in the Plaza de la Universidad are possible because there are no consequences. If there had been severe fines, we would not have seen this kind of massive distribution of information.says Răzvan Cherecheș. He did a calculation and showed that if ten people were infected in such a manifestation, the infection could then spread to hundreds or even thousands of people.
Restaurants will be closed again
Among the relaxation measures taken so far, the opening of restaurants is the most risky, according to the expert. “It just came to our knowledge then. The solution was not to open restaurants, it was to support restaurants, a long-term support program funded by the state, because when people eat and are in the same space, the risk of contagion increases enormously, often increases. This was not an evidence-based measure, it was purely political, purely to please the HoReCa industry. They will end up closed again as the number increases. A long-term solution must be found, not close-open, in which the burden falls on private operators, ”Răzvan Cherecheș also said.
The first restrictions will be exactly like the last time: closing restaurants, closing schools and restricting the movement of people in crowded places: shopping malls, clubs, any type of public space, any type of event, said the university professor.
Check out all his observations in the video below:
Editor: Luana Pavaluca
