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The virulence of the new coronavirus could decrease over time, with the increase in the number of infections, says Professor Alexandru Rafila, who demonstrated this Thursday at Digi24 that in addition to SARS and MERS, there are four other types of coronavirus in the world that cause absolute colds. trivial.
Alexandru Rafila found that despite the increase in the number of cases of infections in Europe, there is a more favorable evolution than what happened in spring. Until recently, Romania ranked first in mortality from COVID in the EU, but was recently surpassed in number of infections and thus in mortality by countries with a much larger population. However, in these countries, mortality is lower than in the spring, which shows that health systems have adapted their treatment schemes or that it is younger people who get sick, while people at risk are better protected, explained Professor Alexandru Rafila.
„I have only one hope: that the virulence of this microorganism diminishes with time and although it causes infections, it will generally produce mild infections. It is not the only coronavirus. There are, in addition to the two known SARS and MERS, there are four coronaviruses that cause some absolutely common colds in the cold season and perhaps all these mutations that occur through repeated passages in humans will not necessarily lead to increased virulence. , can lead to a decrease in virulence“Said Alexandru Rafila.
“I have a hope, which I do not realize if it is based on the evolution of the disease or the adaptability of health systems,” said the president of the Romanian Society for Microbiology.
Better situation than in spring
He stressed that this is a purely theoretical discussion and that a decrease in the virulence of the virus has not yet been scientifically found, but there are indications that things may evolve better in this pandemic. “I notice that countries that have a large number of cases, higher than Romania, have better indicators in terms of the health system, the pressure on the health system, the proportion of severe cases, the proportion of deaths and this is something gratifying. . . Probably, health systems have adapted and managed to protect vulnerable categories, which make serious forms of the disease ”, said Professor Rafila.
“I give you an example: France. It has 7,000 new cases a day, that is, proportionally, France has more than Romania, we are in a cumulative incidence of 85 per 100,000 inhabitants, France has 130, Spain is 240. We no longer notice The same problems that existed in spring. Mortality is much lower. Later, either health systems were well adapted, therapeutic schemes were adopted, so that patients no longer had such severe forms and mortality was reduced; or the fact of The fact that young people generally fall ill and have managed to implement strategies to avoid infecting vulnerable people has led to a reduction in the impact on the health system ”, explained Alexandru Rafila.
The number of infections will increase with the start of school.
That is why the teacher believes that an increase – inevitable – in the number of COVID-19 cases should not be dramatized once school begins, especially since children are not in a risk category.
“The number of COVID-19 cases will inevitably increase with the start of school, but for children it is not dramatic, it is not a problem. The number of safe cases will increase nationally. I hear all kinds of theories with wave dynamics , etc. I don’t know what this dynamic is. It will surely increase in the next period, “said Alexandru Rafila.
WHO: Concern for November and December
The representative of Romania in the WHO also expressed the point of view of this organization: the months of November and December will be really worrying.
“I want to tell you what is the point of view of the World Health Organization regarding the evolution – not in Romania – in the European region of the WHO. It includes 53 member states, these are the traditional European states to which the former states of the Soviet Union are added, the region reaches as far as Vladivostock. The great concern is for the months from November to December due to the increase in the number of cases, ”said Professor Rafila from Digi24.
Editor: Luana Păvălucă
