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Alexandru Rafila, representative of Romania in the WHO, spoke at Digi24 about the evolution of the coronavirus epidemic in our country. The doctor says that a second wave of infections will probably follow, and “the last two months of this year will probably be critical”, November and December, “when a significant increase in the number of cases is estimated in the European region.” Alexandru Rafila also said that we could see the start of control of this disease in the middle of next year, only if we have a vaccine that is effective enough.
Alexandru Rafila: We are facing a stage of constant growth that began around June 1, growth that stopped at the end of August. For about 3, 4 weeks we have a daily average of about 1200 cases, and this is best seen if we study the data provided daily by the European Center for Disease Control and we are on the value of about 85 cases per Hundreds of thousands of inhabitants accumulate incidence and we stopped at this value, as I said, for about 3 weeks.
If we manage not to exceed 10, 15, 20 percent this value in the next period, given that schools are resumed, a whole series of other activities that have been resumed, and then hit a downward trend, I think it will be bearable for the health system and I think for the population as well, because at this moment the population is a bit disoriented, they don’t know what to believe, the information is contradictory.
Some say there will be an explosion of cases, others say there will be a decrease …
Typically, after a first explosive increase in the number of cases at the beginning of the pandemic, a period of decline follows. This is exactly what happened in Romania, with unwanted growth.
My opinion is that if we refer to the second wave, this wave, as far as I know from the WHO, will probably be critical the last two months of this year – November and December, when a significant increase is estimated at the level of the European region. of number of cases. And with the arrival of the cold season, with the development of activities more indoors, less outdoors, there is this risk. And if the population is not sufficiently trained, so to speak, in respect of these distancing measures, it is certain that a second wave can be reached, but in no case can we discuss the evolution of these waves for years. pandemic.
Rather, we may be witnessing the emergence of this disease in the middle of next year, only if we have a vaccine that is effective enough to stop transmission, especially in risk categories.
Web Editor: Liviu Cojan
