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Ion Cristoiu analyzes the latest polls on voting intention in local elections and shows that the trend is for voters to win the right-wing parties and the September 27 election, and the parliamentary party, with weak left-wing opposition, which will paralyze the democracy. ordeal.
We reproduce in full the editorial published on cristoiublog.ro:
“As happened so many times in the post-December period, in the midst of a campaign for the locals, the polls on the September 27, 2020 vote began to flow.
Two polls were recently released – CURS and AVANGARDE – both aimed at the political vote in the local elections of September 27, 2020. The clarification, Political vote, is necessary in any comment dedicated to the results revealed by the polls. In the local elections of September 27, 2020, as in all local elections, political vote means the vote given to the lists of councilors of different levels. The voter is called to put the stamp on the name and on the parties. By name in the vote of mayors and county council chairs. By parties within the lists of local and county councilors. In Bucharest, roll-call voting takes place in the office of the mayor general and the district mayors. Voting on the list is for sector councilors and general councilors. In the roll call, the party matters less and the person matters more. Of course, the party is also important, especially in emotional situations. But it’s hard to assume that, with the exception of a party’s captive electorate, voters will vote against the heart when it comes to a name. Only the party matters when voting on the list. There may also be situations, like that of the Bucharest General Council, where some voters put the seal on a party, discovering loved ones on the list, such as Petre Roman. The rule is given by the vote of the parties, especially since the situations in which the list attracts through the names of some councilors are quite rare. Therefore, the vote of the councils is considered a political vote. The vote for mayors expresses to a lesser extent the political option of the moment. The vote of the councils reflects the political option. Situations in which the vote in the municipal council must differ politically from the vote in the mayor’s office cannot be excluded. That is, the mayor belongs to one party and the majority of the council belongs to another party. There are also situations like in 2016, when the political vote worked not only in the Bucharest city hall, but also in the Bucharest mayor’s office. When the mayor is in office, the vote per person is of the utmost importance.
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The local political vote is a good barometer for parliamentarians. The vote of the mayors cannot be taken into account in absolute terms. I told him why. There are many situations in which the option for a person outweighs the option for a party. One of the conditions of this situation is high participation. This great presence means the presence of the undecided, of those who are not part of the party galleries.
These considerations should guide us in the analysis of the results of the two surveys.
The percentages given by the two ballot boxes are not decisive for the mayoralty vote. I said it: in the name vote, the person matters, not the party. Especially now, when emotion as a factor of political choice has disappeared. In November 2019 or even April 2020, the hatred of the PSD and the illusion of an NLP that makes a different policy would also have said their word to the mayors. But now, after 10 months of the Liberal Government’s PSD-ist disaster, it’s hard to believe that the excitement will continue to work.
According to a CURS survey presented by Antena 3 months, September 7, 2020, the intention to vote for parties in the local elections on September 27 would be:
NLP – 33%
PSD – 26%
USR – PLUS – 16%
Pro Romania – 7%
PMP – 5%
ALDE – 4%
UDMR – 4%
PPU-SL – 4%
Other part – 1%
The survey was conducted between August 28 and September 4, using the “face-to-face, home of respondents” data collection method. It should be noted that the percentages represent the options of 75% of those who intend to vote.
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The same publication also featured an opinion poll conducted by Avangarde. The results are near.
NLP – 34%
PSD – 27%
USR – PLUS – 17%
Pro Romania – 5%
UDMR -5%
PMP – 4%
PPU-SL – 4%
ALDE – 3%
The research was conducted between September 3 and 7, 2020, on a sample of 800 people. The margin of error is 4%.
What do the two polls tell us about the municipal vote, the political vote?
1. The right, ie PNL, USR-PLUS and possibly PMP, will constitute the majority in most county and local councils. Even if they win, PSD candidates will face what could be worse in the case of a hostile majority in councils. From this point of view, it is certain that in Bucharest the sectoral councils and the general council will be the majority. Should she win, Gabriela Firea would face an aggressive right-wing majority. PSD to be able to partner in advice only with Pro Romania. Little to do most of the tips.
2. Parliamentarians will bring to power a Coalition of the right strong enough to proceed through both Parliament and Government, under the leadership of Klaus Iohannis, and with the support of the System of Forced Institutions, to structural reforms. Commenters paid attention only to the difference between NLP and PSD. From this point of view, government things gave the impression that they were still playing games. In reality, the tendency of the electorate, as the results of the political vote show, is to cede power to the right. In the CURS survey, PNL and USR-PLUS together represent 49%. Together with sure UDMR or with PMP, if Traian Băsescu makes an honest campaign in Bucharest, the two parties will have a comfortable majority in Parliament. In the AVANGARDE survey, the two parties together account for 51%. The only unknown remains the relationship between NLP and USR-PLUS within the right. For now, he is in favor of NLP. 33% to 16% in the first survey. 34% to 17% in the second. The NLP seems to have a voice in the Government Coalition.
Things can get complicated until parliament and especially after the result of the premises. If Nicusor Dan wins in Bucharest in the general mayor’s office and Clotilde Armande in sector one, even if the successes arise from an electoral alliance, for the voters the victory will be USR-PLUS. This would create the conditions for a pro-USR-PLUS wave to parliament. The locals can also influence the report by compromising NLP from a political point of view by softening up PSD recruits. Reality indicates that not infrequently a mayor can cost you a lot in parliament. Let’s keep in mind that after the locals, the PNL-USR-PLUS alliance will fall apart. That is, unless Dan Barna is ordered to coexist with NLP in parliament to smother USR-PLUS so tightly in his arms.
3. The left already loses in the local political vote and in the parliamentary one. In the first survey, PSD has 26% and Pro Romania 7%. A total of 33%. It should be noted that PSD has no other allies with which to form a government. In the second, PSD has 27% and Pro Romania, 5%. Total 32%. It is not difficult to see that while on the right NLP and USR operate according to the principle of communicating vessels, on the left this does not happen.
Although the local elections did not take place, and the parliamentary elections are only three months away, we know as of now that in December 2020 the right will come to power for four years. A right that benefits from a president and, through him, the System of institutions of force in Romania. The opposition, reduced to PSD and Pro Romania, is now weak. If we think that the press, the NGOs, the Western partners are on the side of the future Absolute Power of the Right, democracy will be put to the test. “
NOTE: This editorial is taken in its entirety from cristoiublog.ro.
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