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The vice president of the Romanian Society of Epidemiology, Emilian Popovici, explained to Digi24 that in Romania, since August, the transmission rate of the coronavirus is constant, but he warned about three unavoidable events that can increase the number of infections, if they are not observed. rules.
“Since August 1, we are at a baseline reproduction number 1, that is, the transmission rate is constant.
It is not so bad, because it could grow, but the situation cannot be interpreted as good, because there are three events that we cannot avoid: the return of people from vacation which means congestion in public transport, follow the opening of the school year This can lead to problems if the right decisions are not made, that is, where schools open and where not and if children and their parents do not follow the rules.
The relationship between children and parents and especially between children and grandparents is very important.
Third, after fall winter comes, again Since November, with temperatures below 10 degrees, we have been waiting for the appearance of the influenza virus and the reactivation of Sars-Cov-2.
Certainly, these two viruses will work simultaneously this winter And the authorities need to pay close attention to the supply of the flu vaccine. The population must understand the usefulness of this influenza vaccine, otherwise, it will be a double problem if you have COVID infection and fluPopovici said.
The epidemiologist explained that the predictions made together with the statistician Valentin Pârvu and published in graphs.ro are based on the baseline reproduction number and that the predictions were made at various levels.
Prognosis: figures for the number of infections and cases of ATI differ in basal reproduction numberIt depends on where we are.
“The situation of the first forecast in August – the figures were exceeded, but apparently, the forecast was correct, because I made the forecast from the baseline number of 1, but I had 1.1 – 1.2, in July, I even reached 1.22 during 5 days.
You can see that the first forecast for August has been fulfilled, we will see if the forecast for September will also be fulfilled ”, said Emilian Popovici.
Edited by Georgiana Marina
