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EU foreign ministers agreed on Friday to impose sanctions on up to 20 Belarusian officials for election fraud and for cracking down on post-election demonstrations.
It comes after large demonstrations in the country as President Alexander Lukashenko received 80.1 percent of the vote in the August 9 elections, according to the official census.
Lukashenko and his security forces have cracked down on the protesters, while EU President Charles Michel, for example, has stated that the elections were neither free nor fair. Erna Solberg has also criticized the dictator, claiming that he has ruled the country with authoritarian means since 1994.
– It did not meet international standards, and we cannot accept the result presented by the authorities, Michel said last week.
At the same time, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Lukashenko’s main supporter, has said they have forces ready to quell the demonstrations “if the situation gets out of control.”
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– will be pressed
Despite Putin’s support, Arve Hansen, an expert on Belarus and a PhD in Russian studies at the University of Tromsø (UiT), believes that everything indicates that what is happening now will lead to the end of the president.
– Now it has lost so much legitimacy, not only in Belarus but also internationally, that its room for maneuver has become very limited. Belarusians strike and sanctions from the West. Even in Russia, where he has traditionally been a popular figure, there are many who now think he should resign, Hansen tells Dagbladet.
Before the elections, he feared the bloody response from the dictator. The fear turned out to be well founded.
He says that, in principle, the regime could have reached an agreement with the opposition with Russia as a mediator, but that there is little indication that Lukashenko will accept such a solution.
See three possible outcomes:
1: – The protests and the general strike can continue until the regime runs out of money and without internal support, and the power apparatus finally has no choice but to turn against the president.
2: – The regime can deploy the army and sharp weapons to stop the demonstrations, which will not stop the opposition, but will only increase the chances of a bloody revolution or a coup.
3: – Russia can also enter with military force to secure Lukashenko as leader. But as long as he is in power, whether as the president of an independent country or as the local governor of Russia, the dissatisfaction will continue. And sooner or later, they will pressure him to quit, Hansen says.
Warning
The researcher believes that Putin’s statement on Thursday can be seen as a warning to both protesters and the West.
– Putin points out that as long as the conflict in Belarus does not become part of the great-power rivalry between Russia and other great powers, Russia will stay on the sidelines, Hansen says.
– Mentally disturbed
In other conflicts, such as in eastern Ukraine, Russia has entered with forces. The Crimean peninsula was once occupied. Hansen says they don’t want Russia to do something similar in Belarus, as is the situation now.
– It has become a military conflict every time.
– Furthermore, a possible annexation of Belarus will be much less popular in Russia than the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Moscow may still be interested in keeping the threat of the use of military force at bay, in order to put more pressure on the Belarusian authorities and its negotiating partners. says Hansen.
After Putin’s remarks on Thursday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg immediately came out and said that Russia should not interfere in the situation in the country.
Belarus is an independent state. And no one, not even Russia, should interfere there, Stoltenberg said in an interview in the German newspaper Bild.
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