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Retired presidents tend to step aside to facilitate their descendants. Nobody thinks what will happen to Donald Trump.
“Good morning. Last night I had a warm conversation with newly elected President Barack Obama. I congratulated him and Senator Joe Biden on their impressive victory.”
The words belong to outgoing President George W. Bush, the day after the 2008 election. The Republican, himself controversial and divisive, described Obama’s election as historic for the United States and pledged his full support during the transition period.
If the dramatic countdown in the United States ends with the declaration of Joe Biden as the new president, then there is no reason to expect something similar from Donald Trump.
Because while Biden said Saturday night that he will surely be nominated, Trump doubts he is the rightful winner and is warning Biden not to capitalize on the victory. “The legal battle has just begun”, Trump writes on Twitter.
But the numbers speech indicates that Biden will reach 270 voters in the next 24 hours, and even arch-conservative Fox News reports that Trump can hardly win the election.
So what role will Trump play in American politics if he loses, how much trouble can he create for Biden in the weeks leading up to the White House keys, and what will he find in the years to come? Can Donald Trump become the most dangerous former president in the world?
VG has been through seven different scenarios with four experts, two from the US and two from Norway:
The four are: Todd Belt, professor of political science at George Washington University; Craig Agranoff, professor of policy advice at Florida Atlantic University; Eirik Løkke, advisor at Civita; and Ole O. Moen, former professor of American studies at the University of Oslo.
Other sources: The New York Times, The Atlantic, The Guardian and Politico; see the links at the end of the case.
Regardless of the outcome of the stressful recount, Trump will remain safe as president for another 74 days, until January 20.
During that time, you can work hard to undermine the outcome of the election.
Without presenting evidence Trump has already said that the Democrats are trying to “steal the election”, and says he has won by a good margin if only what he calls “the legal votes” are counted. Let the Supreme Court decide, Trump writes on Twitter.
– Trump will never admit defeat, he will continue to fight in court, believes Eirik Løkke.
Ole O. Moen recalls that it took 36 days of counting and litigation before the result was ready in Florida in 2000.
– At that time there was only one state, now there are many states. It can take time and meanwhile get your fans excited, including a host of feats with weapons, Moen says.
Professor Todd Belt notes that the electorate will meet on December 14 to appoint a new president, and that Trump will “demand by all means until then.”
– Trump will pressure state officials to nominate Republican voters, contrary to the count, believes Belt.
Professor Craig Agranoff makes a “wild guess” about what might happen if the electorate announces Biden as the winner:
– Maybe Trump resigns on December 15? You can appoint Vice President Mike Pence as interim president, so he will not be present during Biden’s inauguration.
Trump has declined to clarify whether he is willing to resign in case of loss. “We’ll see,” he says.
What if Trump refuses to hand over the keys to the White House?
“I’m sure the military escort him fast »Biden said when asked about that scenario.
But US Defense Secretary Mark Milley was quick to come out, saying that if Trump refuses to give up power, the military will not intervene.
– I think the case is resolved within that. As of 12:00 noon on January 20, he is no longer president and may be removed from the White House for property infringement, Todd Belt says.
Craig Agranoff points out the same:
– Even if he refuses to leave, he will not be president, just an occupant of a house without power or authority, he says.
The two Norwegian experts are more uncertain:
– The legislation is not very specific about what should happen if a sitting president refuses to acknowledge an electoral defeat. As the military has pointed out, there are no formal directives that they can intervene, says Ole O. Moen.
– Nothing with Trump can be ruled out, but that it is carried out by the White House makes it bad for a man with his own image, points out Eirik Løkke.
Can Trump be held legally liable for alleged money from porn star Stormy Daniels?
And all the tax cases against you?
Trump himself claims that the presidency It makes him absolutely immune, but Berit Berger, a former assistant US attorney in New York, has explained to VG that the investigations against Trump continue.
– Many believe that if Trump temporarily gives Mike Pence presidential power, then he can force him to forgive. But that only applies to federal cases. It does not escape crimes at the state level, says Craig Agranoff.
Todd Belt and Eirik Løkke make the same point: The Southern District of New York cases mean that Trump is at risk of ending up in court.
Ole O. Moen explains why Trump has desperately tried to stall investigations against him to be successful.
– He is terrified that it will be revealed to which suspicious foreign sources he has large debts, Moen believes.
A defeated and angry Trump brings with him many followers.
On Twitter, @realDonaldTrump has 87 million followers.
After all, Trump has received about 70 million individual votes, more than any Republican presidential candidate before him, and a record that has surprised experts.
Through the Twitter account, Trump will be able to influence politics and the news for several years, explained his former campaign leader Brad Parscale.
Trump has also compiled a huge database of what triggers Republican voters. It will be of great importance to the party and can give Trump a lot of power.
Obtaining a statement of support for Trump will be invaluable to Republican politicians in the future, due to Trump’s loyal supporters. And as we know, Trump loves having that kind of power, explains Craig Agranoff.
– Trump’s version is that he did not lose, but was deceived. This may indicate that you want to seek political revenge. He’s put footmen at the party and it can be hard to get rid of, says Ole O. Moen.
All four experts point to rumors that Trump will start his own television channel, to challenge Fox News, thereby gaining significant power on the Republican side.
– His political legacy is reinforced by the fact that he has shown great ability to mobilize voters, says Eirik Løkke.
The New York Times has published tax reports that show Trump is $ 421 million in debt.
“Fake news,” hevder Trump.
– The first thing to do is to find a way to pay the debt. He will probably keep the responsibility for his business empire himself, I can’t imagine taking positions on the board of directors of other companies, says Todd Belt.
Eirik Løkke notes that Trump has mostly earned well when he can use his name as a brand, and that that brand is strengthened by being president. Craig Agranoff points out the same:
– Being president opens new doors. The Trump name is now a known brand in every corner of the world, says the Florida professor.
Ole O. Moen notes that there are also trends that Trump has enriched himself and his acquaintances by virtue of being president.
– Much of his business will be geared toward the new TV company he planned even before he was elected, Moen says.
A resigned president has a lot of prestige and will be able to travel on “state visits.”
And Trump will receive Secret Service protection for life.
If Trump continues Getting in touch with heads of state like Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un may make it very embarrassing for Biden.
The role of former president is not that lucrative in itself, but the network you bring with you can be used to gain influence, including through charities, as Bill Clinton has done with “The Clinton Foundation,” says Ole O Moen.
“Trump wants to use all his connections from the time in the White House to strengthen himself, he knows no limits,” says the American expert.
Craig Agranoff believes that Trump is unique and will have a completely different role as a former president than some of his predecessors.
“The similarity to the other former presidents is that Trump is sure to make a lot of money,” Agranoff says.
As a former president, Trump will also have a position to speak out on politics and get attention on television, Eirik Løkke and Todd Belt say.
Donald Trump owns the massive Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida, with 126 rooms.
Why not retire to a quiet life with golf and luxury?
– I can’t imagine that. Trump appears to be a man who demands a lot of attention and who draws energy from it, says Eirik Løkke.
Professor Todd Belt agrees from Washington.
– Never in life if you choose an isolated life. It will become relevant on all political issues, believes Professor Todd Belt.
His American colleague Craig Agranoff, who, like Trump, lives in Florida, agrees.
– He will play a lot of golf, as he has done throughout his presidency. But I think he will travel lecturing and will surely have his own television show again.
– There are also many rumors, spread by Trump employees, that he will run for election again in 2024, when he is 78 years old. That’s why it can’t be ruled out, says Agranoff.
A new election campaign with Trump is something that the American historian Professor Douglas Brinkley has also suggested to VG.
– We will see how your health is in the future. He is already an old man. I’m also excited about what his young wife, Melania Trump, is doing. She has had a very withdrawn role as first lady and I read that she lives most of the time with her parents. If she had to be thankful for herself, it would be devastating to Trump’s ego, says Ole O. Moen.
SOURCES
Photo: Reuters, NTB scanpix and VG.
