Trump Victory: – Stupid Theories

FAYETTEVILLE, NORD-CAROLINA (Dagbladet): The campaign for the presidential election is in its last four days in a very frantic rush.

In recent days, the Trafalgar polling company, among others, has produced several polls that look brilliant for Trump in several major states. The polling institute has influenced Trump’s “timid” voters the most and is therefore controversial. As is well known, opinion polls were wrong when Donald Trump won the 2016 election.

Several have mentioned that Trump is pushing for the Democratic front-runner.

WARNING: On Thursday, Melania Trump returned with her husband on the election campaign. They have not performed together in public meetings since June. Trump himself claims the polls are wrong, but the guru is now warning against polls that look better for the president. Photo: REUTERS / Jonathan Ernst / NTB
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However, polling guru Nate Silver, behind statistics website FiveThirtyEight, believes there is no indication that Trump and Biden are becoming more of a match.

Disappointed Trump fan: – Recession

The former vice president leads with more than 7.4 percentage points on average for national surveys on the RCP website, but with 8.8 percentage points on FiveThirtyEight, which weights his polls based on past results and methodology.

Leaving thousands stranded in the cold

– Stupid theories

– It doesn’t get smoother if you use solid methodology or look at good polls. The fact that it is becoming more fluid is almost exclusively attributed to three or four survey companies that conduct a lot of surveys and therefore may dominate the average, he writes. Twitter.

– I don’t think I was spending my best time dismissing all the stupid theories about why Trump can win, especially since Trump can win. It’s still a completely “dumb” season out there now.

The map above shows the state of the presidential elections according to the latest polls.

More than 80 million Americans have already voted in advance, but now it is up to the candidates to mobilize as much as they can until Tuesday’s election day. It is expected to have a record turnout with possibly more than 150 million votes, according to the US Electoral Project.

The sprint is brutal, and Donald Trump and Joe Biden cross paths multiple times over the next few days.

Important tilt states

Today, Trump travels to the three main states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota in the Midwest. The first two became very important in the 2016 presidential victory.

Joe Biden is also traveling to Minnesota today. He also travels to Iowa, which Trump won by nearly 10 percentage points over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

– What the hell is wrong with him?

Biden leads by more than five percentage points in an average of polls in Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota, according to Realclearpolitics. By the same average, he also has a narrow lead in Iowa.

Bark together

Hillary Clinton was widely criticized for not prioritizing the Midwest states enough. Biden won’t repeat that mistake in 2020. He has dramatically stepped up his travel business in recent days and, among other things, will hold a public meeting with Barack Obama in Michigan on Saturday.

Trump’s big wins in the region in 2016 were surprising, and he lost Minnesota by just 45,000 votes despite having almost no campaign there.

But today, the two candidates collide in the same state, as they did yesterday in Tampa, Florida.

Voting record: – Scared everyone

It’s happening at the same time the United States is reviewing infection log after infection log, with more than 90,000 corona infected Thursday. Wisconsin is one of the hardest-hit states, and the Biden campaign heavily attacks Trump for dealing with the virus. More than nine million have been infected in the country and 229,000 have died.

Texas spill

Biden’s vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris will make three campaign stops in Texas today. Trump clearly won Texas in 2016, but now there is a sudden battle in the giant state with as many as 38 voters.

Recent polls suggest that Trump and Biden are evenly matched in Texas, but the president has a two-point lead over the RCP poll average.

Analytical website Cook Political Report on Wednesday changed its definition of Texas from turning against Trump to now in play. So they think it can be as even here as it is in states like North Carolina, Florida and Ohio.

The “red illusion” can create chaos

– Must have polling errors

FiveThirtyEight points out that there must be a big mistake in the polls for Donald Trump to win the election. Florida has to win. Pennsylvania is noted as the second largest tip state.

Silver’s website, whose forecasts Dagbladet uses, among other things, now gives Trump an 11 percent chance of winning and Biden an 89 percent chance.

Or as they write: Trump’s odds are slightly worse than rolling one on a die and slightly better than the chance of it raining in Los Angeles.