– Trump Loses Election – NRK Urix – Foreign News & Documentaries

– Forget television speeches and debates. Forget about polls and what the experts say. Forget about ad campaigns, fundraising, and dirty tricks too. It does not mean anything!

The words come from the history professor Allan Lichtman (73) of the American University in Washington.

Since 1984, he has predicted the correct winner in each of the presidential elections in the United States.

Well, maybe with one small exception. But the professor also thinks he was right. More on that, and his rather special methods a little later.

– happiness has become

In the last election, in 2016, Allan Lichtman was one of the few who predicted Donald Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton.

This year, he claims that President Trump will lose the election to the Democrat’s challenger, Joe Biden.

– For the first time since George Bush Sr. in 1992, a sitting president will suffer defeat in his bid for reelection. And never before has the White House party experienced that happiness has changed so abruptly and dramatically as it does now, Lichtman says.

Should detect earthquakes

“Keys to the White House” is Allan Lichtman’s system for predicting who will be the next president of the United States. He published the book of the same name in 1996. But the theories were developed in the early 1980s, together with a Russian seismologist named Vladimir Keilis-Borok.

The system that predicts who wins the presidential election in the United States was actually developed to be able to predict earthquakes.

– The key is to see the big picture. We look at the basic driving forces and ignore all the noise and all the little things, Lichtman explains.

13 keys

Is the president involved in scandals of some kind? Is there social unrest in the country? Are any of the candidates particularly charismatic or viewed as a national hero? And how is the economy doing, in the short and long term?

These are some of the thirteen questions Allan Lichtman uses to answer who wins the presidential election. According to the professor, each presidential election is basically a referendum for or against those in power. So he thinks since 1860.

When he predicted Trump’s victory in 2016, the history professor received a personal greeting from the newly elected president with the caption “Good job, professor!”

The New York Times newspaper interviewed Lichtman on video, calling him the response of the US presidential election to the medieval divination artist Nostradamus.

But was he wrong in 2000?

In 2000, Allan Lichtman predicted that Democratic candidate Al Gore would defeat Republican challenger George W. Bush.

It’s true that Gore received the most votes from voters, but he lost the Florida state electorate after several rounds in the judiciary. Bush Jr. became president. 537 votes in Florida decided.

But since Gore won the majority, Lichtman believes he was far from right anyway.

Butterflies in the stomach

The history teacher has turned 73. He has been following the same methods for almost 40 years. But he admits he is still excited every time he delivers his prediction.

– I still have butterflies in my stomach. Not only am I giving you probabilities of one outcome or another, I am clear who wins. And I know I’ll put a brick in my head if I’m wrong. But I can bear it!

In a few days we will know if “the man who is always right” will also be right in 2020.

P.S! Professor Allan Lichtman has also tried his hand at competitions on television. He won 16 shows in a row and took four cars in the award. But when he tried to be elected Democratic Senator from Maryland in 2006, he was left with 1.2 percent support, a sixth place in the election and a large campaign debt that he had to pay off.

Listen to the Trump Against the World podcast where we spoke with statistician Jørgen Bølstad about Allan Lichtman’s predictions and various polls just before the election..