This is Turkey’s role in the Armenian conflict – VG

“The mountainous black garden”. It is the land that is being fought for. The importance of controlling Nagorno-Karabakh, as it is called in Azerbaijani, or Artsakh, as the Armenians say, has strong symbolic power in both countries.

Armenian separatists may now have to give up some of the land they have controlled since 1994.

“Success for the operation of our honorable army. Karabakh is Azerbaijan», Wrote Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on Twitter after three villages on the outskirts of the disputed enclave were taken.

Ten days of fierce fighting has caused extensive damage to Stepanakert, the separatist capital of Armenia. More than 300 have died, at least 47 of them civilians. And half the population, around 75,000, will be forced to flee.

Five points give you an overview: The Battle of Nagorno-Karabakh

Will make concessions

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pasjinian now says Armenia is “ready to accept concessions” if Azerbaijan does the same.

– Conflicts must be resolved on the basis of mutual concessions. Nagorno-Karabakh is ready, and Armenia is ready, to reflect the concessions Azerbaijan is willing to make, Pasjinian said in an interview with the AFP news agency.

In this case it means concessions cede parts of the disputed areas. But there is a long way to go to the negotiating table, and the will to fight remains great among Armenians – new recruits and volunteers come to the fore every day.

Accusing Turkey

Prime Minister Pasjinian, who likes to be photographed in camouflage clothing with Armenian officers, has been aware that an attack on separatist territory should be considered an attack on all of Armenia.

At the same time, he is making accusations against Turkey, a NATO country, which is hated by the majority of Armenians. The Prime Minister believes that Turkey has encouraged Azerbaijan to start the fight.

VG has received statements from the Armenian official news agency Armenpress stating that Turkish officers are actively participating in the planning of the offensive. There have also been reports that Turkey is sending troops from a country-controlled Syrian militia to fight the conflict.

Support the “brother people”

Both are rejected by both Azerbaijan and Turkey. But there is no doubt that Turkey is backing its “brother people” in Azerbaijan.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has called Armenia the biggest threat in the region, and Defense Minister Hulusi Akar has expressed his full support for the offensive from day one.

This week, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavusoglu visited the Azerbaijani capital Baku. There he pointed out that it is internationally recognized that the land really belongs to Azerbaijan.

He also said that a new ceasefire is of no use, as negotiations have long gone without an agreement on the disputed region.

When NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was in Turkey on Monday and held a press conference with Turkey’s foreign minister, he called for an immediate ceasefire.

Goes way back

The war in the Caucasus has deep roots. You have to go back a hundred years in time to find the main cause of the hostility that Armenians feel towards Turkey; namely, the genocide of nearly 1.5 million Armenians between 1915-1920, which Turkey refuses to acknowledge took place.

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan dates back at least three decades and began when both were republics of the Soviet Union. The Nagorno-Karabakh enclave was later annexed by Azerbaijan, despite the fact that the majority of those who lived there were ethnic Armenians.

As long as both territories were ruled by an iron hand from Moscow, the antagonisms between the Christian Armenians and the Muslim Azerbaijanis were kept under control. But when the Iron Curtain began to crumble, a full-blown war broke out in the early 1990s.

Armenia emerged victorious in 1994 and at least 750,000 ethnic Azerbaijanis were forced to flee. Since then, Nagorno-Karabakh has been ruled by separatists, who collaborate with the Armenian government.

Incitement to war

The loss of the war 26 years ago has never been forgotten in Azerbaijan, which has a population three times the size of Armenia and great wealth in oil and gas. Over and over again, President Ilham Aliyev has said he will “drink tea” in the neighboring country, a clear threat of invasion.

The strongest card of Azerbaijan militarily is the close relationship with Turkey, which has the second largest army in NATO.

Both countries have a Turkish population, very similar in language, and are known as two states, one nation. During Erdogan’s long tenure in power in Turkey, ties have grown even closer, both militarily and economically.

Important news came in August for both countries: Azerbaijan is now Turkey’s largest gas supplier, making Turkey less dependent on gas from Russia.

Putin is careful

Turkey’s relations with Russia are now being tested by the conflict in Azerbaijan. Russia is Armenia’s most prominent supporter and has long been aware that NATO countries will not interfere in conflicts in the former Soviet Union.

Armenia has stated this week that it is confident of Moscow’s support if the war goes wrong. But the fact is that Russia is much more cautious in its statements than Turkey.

The Kremlin condemns the acts of war and offers to mediate, but appears not to be interested in siding with Armenia. Russian President Vladimir Putin also wants to maintain good relations with Azerbaijan.

Background: – Putin has interests on both sides

Indirectly, both Turkey and Russia are already involved: the armed drones used to attack Armenian positions are produced in Turkey; while Armenian soldiers defend themselves in Russian tanks.

Failed negotiations

While Erdogan actively supports Azerbaijan’s reconquest of Nagorno-Karabakh, Putin apparently wants to keep the situation unresolved.

Russia is one of three leaders of the so-called Minsk group that will negotiate a lasting peace, along with France and the United States. Turkey, which is one of the eight observer countries, believes that the Minsk group has played its part.

In a talk show on the Turkish channel TRT-World, Caucasus expert Laurence Broers of Chatham House gives an explanation of why the Minsk group has failed:

– Both sides have always had a plan-b that has twisted the negotiations: Armenia wants to let the conflict remain unresolved, so that the separatists retain their territories. Azerbaijan has been strengthened militarily, in preparation for an armed conflict. Therefore, the Minsk group has been unable to persuade the conflicting parties to compromise, says Broers.

Negotiations are expected in the Minsk group during a meeting in Geneva on Thursday night, TRT World reports.

Cluster bomb accusations

Both Armenian and Azerbaijani forces use cluster munitions in Nagorno-Karabakh, according to Amnesty International.

Amnesty has examined images of the battlefield in the enclave and claims that cluster munitions of the type M095 DPICM produced in Israel have been used in an attack on the capital Stepanakert, NTB writes.

According to Amnesty, the Azerbaijani forces have likely used cluster munitions in their artillery strikes against the city. Amnesty also accuses the Armenian forces of using cluster munitions, recalling that an international convention was passed ten years ago prohibiting the use of such weapons.

More than 100 countries have signed the convention, but Armenia and Azerbaijan are not among them. Neither is Israel.

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