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Re-election as president is not an easy task.
Bill Clinton promised that in his second term he would “build a bridge to the 21st century.” Bush was to provide “a safer world and a more hopeful America.” Barack Obama said he would go to one place during his last term, namely, “go ahead.”
Trump says he will “make America great again.” Again.
– You will always expect more of the same when you are re-elected, but you will often also see a distinctly different policy, says Anders Romarheim, American expert and researcher at the Department of Defense Studies (IFS), part of the Norwegian Defense College (FHS).
Voting record: – Scared everyone
Focuses on foreign affairs
If Trump wins the election but loses a majority in the Senate, he will likely focus more on foreign policy, believes Svein Melby, principal investigator at IFS.
– If Trump is re-elected and gets a democratic Congress, he will have bigger problems at the national level. Then you can compensate by getting more involved abroad, where power is greater and Congress tends to give presidential power more leeway, Melby says.
Trump against Twitter and Facebook
Romarheim says Trump demands to work with him internationally.
“Europe yearns for a different America than Trump, and I think they will ‘wait’ for Trump and work around him, rather than trying to negotiate with him as president,” Romarheim said.
Trump has also made it clear that he believes the United States carries too much of a burden in NATO and that he believes other countries should start contributing more. Neither Mjelde nor Melby will rule out Trump trying to remove the United States from NATO.
– It is absolutely crucial for Norwegian security, and a prerequisite for a peaceful Europe, that the United States is willing to give priority to NATO, says Melby.
– In Trump’s eyes, resources are wasted defending weaker states without receiving anything in return. That’s a completely legitimate argument, says Romarheim.
Fred?
It is not yet clear exactly what Trump’s possible commitment to foreign policy is about. Trump has always been clear that he wants to put the interests of the United States first.
Leaving thousands stranded in the cold
– When Trump was elected, he had a little foreign policy message. He promised victory in the fight against IS, went well, and promised a tougher line against China and in trade relations, which he has also delivered, says Romarheim.
– This time I can barely decipher any foreign policy program beyond what it already has, says Romarheim and adds:
– It may well create peace in the Middle East and it may well fail, like everyone else.
Ruver
American researcher Hilmar Mjelde at the Norce research center believes that Trump’s plans do not only depend on whether he is re-elected.
– Trump himself will be more imposing than ever, just by virtue of all that he has survived. But if the Democrats win back the Senate, Trump’s agenda will stand firm, Mjelde writes in an email to Dagbladet.
Mjelde believes that next week’s elections are also an option for the Republican Party.
If Trump is re-elected, he will pull the entire GOP ideology in his own direction and move away from the Reagan-influenced ideology that has dominated the party for the past 40 years, Mjelde believes.
– If Trump loses, he will likely be seen as an uninvited guest and a historical deviation that one doesn’t have to think so much about, Mjelde writes.
– What it says is garbage
Completely different line
If Biden wins, the pipe will sound different.
– I envision two scenarios: Biden could become a new Jimmy Carter, who is subject to polarization and internal division. Or it could be a return to the Obama era, with small reforms and still a high level of conflict, Mjelde writes.
Biden is among the most experienced living American politicians with 36 years in the Senate, including as chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, and eight years as vice chair.
– It is a manifestation of the American foreign policy establishment that Trump has worried about attacking and against which he works, says Romarheim.
Therefore, Romarheim believes that the foreign policy line will change from day one.
– They have two completely different versions of what the United States is and can be. There are probably few of the changes in Trump that Biden will continue, but that doesn’t mean he will automatically reverse the tougher line against China, or the withdrawal of American soldiers from Germany, says Romarheim.
Take more responsibility
Melby believes that Biden will focus more on international agreements.
“Biden has said from day one that he will withdraw the Paris Agreement, the Iran Agreement, and put more emphasis on collective action with allies around the world,” Melby said.
Nonetheless, Mjelde believes that Americans have become more skeptical of the traditional role of the United States as a leader in much of the world.
– If Biden wins, there will be some repair work. The United States will rejoin international cooperation. But now we see an isolationist push in the United States: Biden will not necessarily put the rest of the country on an international agenda. The Iraq war did enormous damage to America’s motivation to take on an international leadership role, Mjelde writes.
