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There is still hope that a major war can be avoided, but a ceasefire in the controversial Nagorno-Karabakh enclave is tortuous. In the last week, more than 200 soldiers and civilians are said to have lost their lives in the bloody fighting.
– The fact that Armenia is positive about international mediation is important. It comes in response to a call from the United States, Russia and France, which together are at the forefront of the Minsk process, the OSCE-led negotiation format that has mediated between the parties since 1994, says the Caucasian expert on NUPI, Helge Blakkisrud, to VG.
He believes that hard and positive diplomatic work will continue to be done by everyone involved before a final ceasefire is reached.
“One of the challenges is how the president of Azerbaijan relates to this plan and whether he will abandon the demand that all Armenian troops be withdrawn from Nagorno-Karabakh before negotiations can take place,” said Blakkisrud.
The so-called Minsk Group of the OSCE, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, is currently led by Russia, France and the United States.
After nearly a week of hostilities, Presidents Putin, Macron and Trump are now devoting all their diplomatic weight to efforts to get the parties to lay down their arms.
This is to prevent the conflict from turning into a real war, as happened between 1991 and 1994, where some 30,000 people lost their lives and hundreds of thousands were forced to flee.
– It is also essential that Turkey join the negotiations. So far, Ankara has continued strong and unreserved support for Azerbaijan, and has recently repeated the demand for a complete withdrawal from Armenia, says Blakkisrud.
– And then Baku must also agree to negotiate a ceasefire. There are very contradictory reports about what is happening on the ground in Nagorno-Karabakh, but Armenian sources today report new attacks on Stepanakert, the capital of the breakaway republic. The road back to the negotiating table may seem long, says the NUPI researcher.
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According to the Reuters news agency, Azerbaijan, which is fighting Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh, has not responded to the Minsk group’s call for a ceasefire.
On Tuesday this week, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said it was impossible to talk to Armenia about the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The president also stressed that the three great powers of the Minsk Group had no role to play as peace negotiators.
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The Defense Ministry in Nagorno-Karabakh reported on Friday that there was heavy fighting throughout the night until Friday and that 54 soldiers were killed, bringing the number of servicemen killed in the clashes to 158, Reuters writes.
Eleven civilians from both sides are said to have lost their lives and 60 are injured in the Caucasus enclave that is part of Azerbaijan but is ruled primarily by an ethnic Armenian population.