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Trump: the political miracle
AUSTIN, TEXAS (VG) Republicans trust Trump to perform a new political miracle Tuesday. Democrats fear they are right.
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All the major pollsters point to an overwhelming probability of a Biden victory on Tuesday. So why do Democrats seem so much more nervous than Republicans?
On Sunday, the New York Times published a new poll showing Biden leading the way in the top four states of Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida and Wisconsin. Stronger in the latter (11 percent), slimmer in Florida (3 percent and within the margin of error).
FiveThirthyEight, which models based on the average of all measurements, gives Biden a 90 percent chance of winning. This means that even if the polls were as crazy as they were in 2016, Biden will still win.
And yet the Democrats I talk to or watch the news with seem much more nervous than the Republicans. While Republicans applaud every time Trump mentions “the great red wave” as “real polls” show, Democrats are evasive and blink their eyes. And every time you ask them what they think about the election result, they pick up the phone and click the update button for FiveThirthyEight in the hopes that there will be a new poll that brings the arrow a little closer to Biden’s victory. one hundred by one hundred.
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Something may simply be due to the visibility of the Trump campaign. In the last few days, I have driven through the state of Texas, which is up for the first time in over forty years. Everywhere I look, I see Trump MAGA signs, banners and hats. It was three days before I saw a Biden / Harris sign.
And when Biden, Harris or other prominent Democrats give speeches, it is barely announced in advance for fear that people will flock to spread the infection, while Trump’s rallies are pure superinfection.
But there is also an almost irrational fear among Democrats of Trump’s almost supernatural political abilities. Love it or hate it, the truth is that it has broken so many political laws of gravity since winning the Republican nomination election four and a half years ago that it is approaching the paranormal.
He put it best himself in 2016: “I could be in the middle of Fifth Avenue (in New York) and shoot a person without losing voters.”
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There you have the Trump phenomenon in a nutshell. His way of acting would take the life of any other political career in the course of a news day. It continues relentlessly as if all the chaos it creates is normal everyday life.
It is this ability that makes his followers act as if victory is already in the bag. And that causes his opponents to feed a kind of superstitious fear that the man simply cannot be defeated:
That your ten percent chance of winning will be fully activated.
That the polls are wrong again.
Something can still happen between now and Tuesday that turns the whole game upside down.
That even if he lost, he would be able to find a way to hold on to power.
That one should prepare for four new years with Donald Trump-style miracles.
