The Great Uncertainty – VG

The speech at a Catholic event was recorded in advance, but it was fully in line with the positive message the president has been trying to share for many months: America has left the worst behind. A vaccine will be available soon. Next year will be one of the best years in American history. As long as he wins the election, of course.

But the pandemic is not over. On the first day of October, 46,459 new cases of infection were registered in the United States. Donald and Melania have received the same disappointing response as more than seven million Americans who have so far passed positive tests.

But when a president becomes infected, deep uncertainty arises. In the United States and in the world. How is your health status. Will you be able to perform your tasks? Or does Vice President Mike Pence have to take over for a while? The other uncertainty is whether the infection has spread through the Trump administration, its close circle of employees, and everyone it has met in recent days. Vice President Pence says he tested negative.

The third uncertainty is how will this affect the electoral campaign? The most immediate consequence is that Trump will cancel major election rallies in the near future. The next presidential debate is scheduled for October 15. It can be canceled. Or Trump can be released by then. Nobody knows.

Nor does anyone know how the president’s illness will affect the US elections on November 3. Trump’s election campaign was in big trouble before it tested positive. He’s a good distance from Joe Biden in the national measurement average. In critically important tilt states, the distance is less, but in most cases it favors Biden.

In early 2020, following the acquittal in the Supreme Court case, President Trump’s reelection prospects were pretty good. That was before the United States was particularly hard hit by the virus. More than 207,000 Americans have died after being infected by Covid-19. On October 1, at least 847 new deaths were reported. The infection is still spreading rapidly in many states in the US The economic consequences have been dramatic.

Trump’s handling of the corona pandemic was the main reason he fell in polls this spring and this summer. He has failed to increase support since. In early February, Trump learned of the danger posed by the coronavirus. According to the book “Rage” by Bob Woodward, Trump told him on February 7 that “the infection passes through the air.”

-You just inhale it and that’s how it spreads. And it is very demanding, very challenging. It is also more deadly than even the strongest flu.

That was not what Trump told his compatriots. He said the virus was either under control or could soon miraculously disappear. He didn’t want to panic, he said later. But after the health crisis became a fact, he lobbied for the reopening of society early, spoke condescendingly about those who wore masks, and have resumed mass meetings with his followers. Infection control measures were bypassed when thousands of supporters gathered with him, many without face masks.

During Tuesday’s turbulent presidential debate, Trump pulled a face mask out of his inside pocket. He wanted to show Biden that he could protect himself, if necessary. At the same time, he joined Biden’s infection control measures: -I don’t wear face masks like him. Every time you see it, wear a mask. He can talk at 200 feet and appears with the largest mask I have ever seen.

Now Trump is isolated indefinitely. You would not sit in your home office, not even in the most famous oval room in the world, in the middle of an election campaign. He insisted on resuming an almost normal election campaign at a completely unusual time. Now this has become impossible.

No one knows for sure what it means that the president has been infected by Covid-19. Neither for the electoral campaign nor for the elections. Will voters be more supportive of a president who has been affected? Will you mobilize your supporters and get insecure voters to support you? And how will Trump refer to Covid-19 from now on? Now all the focus is on the president and his health. All the negative problems that have weakened Trump in recent times are relegated to the background.

In any case, isolation will prevent Trump from running the election campaign he wants. Trump has tried to portray the pandemic as something the United States could soon leave behind. Instead, he has wanted to focus on America’s return and on law and order. Now he himself has been overcome by the very thing that has afflicted so many of his compatriots.

The pandemic has turned everything upside down in the election campaign once before. Now the virus can do the same thing again. Despite all attempts to prevent the president from being infected, the virus has once again shown that it can infiltrate the highest circles of power.