the choice: tougher than Hillary

For those who followed from Norway, the early part of election night on Nov. 3 brought the partnerships back to 2016. Polls had again underestimated Donald Trump’s support in several tip states, and he again saved the top two. game balls for the Democrats to win Florida and North Carolina. In Ohio, Democrats emerged in clear leadership, but it quickly morphed into growing supremacy for Republicans. For the time being, Trump withstood the pressure in the South and held a clear lead in both big Texas and little Iowa.

The initial progress, Combined with memories of 2016, and a clear lead in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, it made such a strong impression that Trump was a clear favorite among bookmakers early Wednesday.

Sober political scientists, historians, and numbers criminals all claimed that Biden was still in the best position, and he was right.

The choice was decided again on the rust belt. There, as expected, Biden proved more resilient than Hillary Clinton, especially among the large group of older white middle-class voters. Election night 2020 saw ups and downs that changed quickly, because Democrats fared much better among the record number of early votes, which entered the count at different times.

I have a bad feeling

In the key state of Pennsylvania, more than a million registered Democrats than Republicans had voted ahead. By late night on Nov. 4, it was clear that Biden would take over Trump’s leadership in Wisconsin and Michigan, while staying away in Arizona. Biden was then able to win the majority of losing voters in Pennsylvania and Georgia, and was in the process of making a major recovery in both.

The world held its breath and the editors hesitated a few more days. The mood in America remained tense and the president stubbornly continued to assert that he wanted to win. Norwegian TV 2 announced Joe Biden as the winner of the election when he passed the count in Pennsylvania in the early afternoon of Friday, November 6. When CNN finally jumped into the cold water and proclaimed Biden the winner on Saturday, November 7, others, including conservative Fox News, followed in a matter of minutes.

A week later, there are still a few million votes to count.

Very gratifying news of the 2020 presidential election was that turnout appears to be the highest since 1900. Biden wins by an alcohol margin in both Arizona and Georgia, and gets, as by an irony of fate, 306 voters, exactly the same as he did. Trump when he won in 2016. Trump at the time had nearly three million fewer votes and just over two percentage points less than his opponent, Biden now appears to end up with more than six million and four percentage points higher.

At just over 51 percent, he gets the most support any rival for a sitting president has received since Franklin D. Roosevelt crushed Herbert Hoover in 1932.

Trump’s defeat was minor than expected, but still too big to explain. For the first time since 1992, a sitting president was not reelected, and for the first time since 1892, Republicans must resign presidential power after just four years. Trump is correct that he has received more votes than any previous Republican presidential candidate. But by an even greater margin, he is also the president of history that the majority of voters have voted against.

Results and background figures from 2020 it presents great challenges for the two great parties. Republicans are obviously challenged in the sense that they lose the battle for votes and are strongest among groups that make up a smaller and smaller proportion of the electorate.

Now gonna stop laughing

Trump fared better than many thought among voters of color, but Republicans remain an unsettling minority for them and have received fewer votes than Democrats in seven of the last eight presidential elections. The party is still on the defensive in the battle for more and more voters who live in cities and those born after 1980.

Democrats look new opportunities in the South and has increasingly better prospects of gaining a majority of voters nationwide, but behind the cheers of victory in 2020, the elections gave them even more cause for concern regarding the electoral college. Despite more than 50 percent of the vote and six million more votes, Democrats could have lost the battle for the presidency if Republicans had received a few tens of thousands more votes in Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona.

The Republican lead in the Electoral College may appear to be more than three percentage points. This, combined with the fact that the polls overestimated the Democrats more than in 2016, means that they must have a really big advantage in the polls to guarantee victory in 2024.

More resistance than ever

The democrats The next few years will struggle with significant internal tensions between a moderate majority and a large minority of radical leftists. The problem for Democrats to draw out younger politicians with appeal stemmed from a disappointing Congressional election, in which Republicans went to the House of Representatives and appear to retain their narrow majority in the Senate.

Joe Biden ran a steady election campaign, but it doesn’t bode well for Democrats who in several states performed much better than younger Senate candidates.

A striking example came in Maine, where Biden won by nearly nine percentage points, while the young Democratic senatorial candidate lost by eight.

The rebound of the electoral campaign It was significantly higher for Republican Senate candidates than for President Trump, and the background numbers also indicate that the election result was a defeat for him personally rather than for Republican politics. However, it could create a very demanding situation for Republicans when Trump now refuses to accept an obvious electoral defeat and, at the same time, seems to be aiming to run again for the election in 2024.

Joe Biden will be in the meantime President of a deeply divided superpower affected by a pandemic and an accompanying economic crisis. More than 100 years ago, it was said of a fairly successful Danish prime minister that it had been his great advantage to never be overrated. Low expectations can be helpful for Biden now.

Presidents’ political room for maneuver is limited by significant disagreements within their own party, by a conservative majority in the Supreme Court, and by the fact that Republicans appear to retain a majority in the Senate.

While most of the new presidents in the United States he will first secure re-election and then his place in history, Biden will likely point to history first. Therefore, neither party has an obvious candidate to win in 2024.

Kamala Harris, 56, will be the first female vice president, and will be the oldest president. Still, it is too early when anyone seems to take it for granted that they are winning the presidential election in four years. In the past 200 years, only two incumbent vice presidents have won a presidential election, and three of the four incumbent vice presidents who have managed to be nominated as presidential candidates in the postwar period ended up losing the election.