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A research team from the Arctic University of Norway (UiT) has conducted a unique corona study.
Participants from all over the country were sent the necessary equipment and asked to stick in their finger and present a blood sample.
– We have collected drops of blood from 28,000 Norwegians. The goal was to map the proportion of the population that has antibodies, says Professor Torkjel Sandanger.
Small hidden infection
Most people who have been infected with COVID-19 get antibodies in their blood. Therefore, the UiT researchers wanted to investigate how many had antibodies, compared to how many were registered infected.
– This is the best way to get a good picture of the infection situation in the population, says Sandaker.
Blood samples were collected in November, December and January and show that 0.9 percent of the participants had antibodies in their blood.
– If we compare this with the number of corona cases we had in Norway on December 20, it was 0.8 percent, says Sandanger.
This means that only 0.1 percent of corona cases went undetected. This is far less than the obscure figure that FHI had previously estimated.
– Were you surprised by this finding?
– Yes, we were a bit surprised. If you compare this to the rest of Europe, there is a big difference. It is estimated that for every known case, there are an average of eight unknown cases of infection, says Sandanger.
– Make us vulnerable
The UiT study shows that infection detection in Norway has been very successful.
– Traces of infection have trapped almost all those infected with corona in Norway. This also indicates that Norwegians have listened well to health authorities, says Sandanger.
TEST: Blood samples are tested for antibodies. Here, from the laboratory medicine clinic of the Oslo University Hospital. Illustration Image: Stian Lysberg Solum / NTB
But it is not necessarily only positive that Norway has had fewer hidden infections than previously thought.
– This, of course, makes us vulnerable to a third wave of infection. The term herd immunity is used and, although no country has achieved herd immunity, Norway is one of the countries with the lowest infection in the world. It makes us vulnerable, says Sandanger.
– Lower than expected
In the latest FHI model, an estimated 166,000 Norwegians have had a crown. In these models, only 62 percent of cases are assumed to have been detected.
– What we see here is a lower number of infected in Norway than we assumed, this also applies to the modeling we have done, says Frode Forland, director of FHI.
NIPH: Director of Studies Frode Forland at NIPH during the press conference on the status of the crown. Photo: Håkon Mosvold Larsen
He believes this is the best study ever done to get an overview of how many people in Norway have had corona.
– We have conducted several smaller studies in which we have followed large cohorts and analyzed blood samples that have been collected for other purposes. Then we got a slightly higher percentage than what UiT has now, but our studies have not been nationally representative, Forland says.
– a good sign
Forland thinks the study mainly shows that Norway has been good at cracking down and tracking down the infection.
– I think this is an expression that we managed to quell the first outbreak in March very effectively and that we have had effective methods to track infections, says Forland.
– The fact that they have been infected less also means that less than expected they are immune. Does it make us more vulnerable?
– We are vulnerable whatever happens. We cannot think that the immunity in society is sufficient to stop the spread of the coronavirus. So we should have about 60-70 percent immunity in society, and we’re far from that, says Forland.
I will investigate more
Blood samples were obtained from people living across the country and in different age groups.
– We have invited everyone from the age of 16 to participate. We see that the age group with the greatest contagion is those between 16 and 19 years of age. There’s a 1.9 percent turnout, so that was pretty surprising, says Sandanger.
Now the researchers will review all the data together with FHI to extract as much information as possible.
– It will be important to take a closer look at the geographic distribution and the age distribution. We’ll use this data for what it’s worth, says Sandanger.
