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IMMUNITY: Professor Tom Britton believes that the immunity of the batch will mainly reach the Stockholm region in mid-June. Photo: Pontus Orre
Math professor Tom Britton says flock immunity can be achieved when 40 percent of the population has had covid-19, which he says will occur within a month.
– We have used a simple model with the reproduction number 2.5 (when each person on average infects 2.5 people) and it comes with this that the immunity of the batch occurs at approx. 40-45 percent instead of 60 percent, Tom Britton tells Svenska Dagbladet.
Flock immunity means that large sections of the population have become immune to the virus. Generally, immunity is due to the vaccine or that a sufficient proportion of the population has had the virus.
Britton is a professor of mathematics at Stockholm University. The calculations were done with Pieter Trapman in the Department of Mathematics at Stockholm University and Frank Ball at the University of Nottingham.
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– Our conclusion is that the immunity of the batch will mainly reach the Stockholm region in mid-June. But there may be a spread of infection here and there, Britton tells the Swedish newspaper.
The result is not yet assured quality, but Britton says they have submitted the report to the acclaimed Science magazine and are waiting for a response in a couple of weeks.
Limited documentation
Stockholm is the city most affected by the corona virus in Sweden. On Saturday, 45 new coronary-related deaths were reported in the country, bringing the total to 3,220 deaths. 25,921 people have been confirmed to be infected.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned against relying on herd immunity, which is to allow enough people in the community to become immune to stop the spread of the virus.
When the body is attacked by a virus, an infection is contracted. The immune system responds by attacking the virus with a so-called immune response.
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“There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from covid-19 and have antibodies cannot be infected a second time,” the United Nations organization said in a statement in late April.
The Institute of Public Health (FHI) has reviewed 35 studies on the subject in a report updated on May 4.
– We found limited evidence of immunity after SARS-CoV-2 infection, FHI concludes in the report.
However, Health Director Bjørn Guldvog told NTB that they believe covid-19 patients become immune to a new infection, but at the same time it is unknown how long this immunity will last.
Vulnerable Norwegians
The Norwegian mother-father-son study (MoBa) shows that 2 out of 100 have antibodies against the coronavirus in Norway.
– Therefore, the population is vulnerable to new outbreaks, says project manager Per Magnus at FHI about the test result of just under 400 tests.
TEST ANTIBODIES: Per Magnus is the project manager for the antibody test at FHI. Photo: FHI
Blood tests for antibodies were taken last week by 397 participants. All those who have been examined so far live in Oslo, which is the county with the most reported coronary cases per inhabitant.
The results were announced Thursday morning, and preliminary calculations show that the proportion of antibodies detected is less than 2 percent.
Magnus explains that the immunity of the batch is not a target, and that the proportion of antibodies detected must be much higher for the population to have natural immunity. He notes that similar test results in Stockholm and New York show that around 10 and 15 percent respectively have detected antibodies, compared to 2 percent in Norway.
– Even that is not enough. It could also be said that New York’s population, which has been severely affected, remains vulnerable, he says.
