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It is not far from a sheep farmer with a small farm in Nordland to a mother of three with an SUV in the Nordstrand district of Oslo. The Labor Party doesn’t see the connection and is furious at the polls.
Before moving on to election research and statistics, here are some private concessions:
Yes, the undersigned was the initiator of the Facebook group “Group of parents and residents against the closure of Kongsveien” in the Nordstrand district of Oslo earlier this year. The FB group took a hard line against the ODM city hall, which was plagued with temporary signature decisions in Oslo.
And yes, my parents were part of the union movement and they voted for the Labor Party their entire lives. This as a backdrop for the rest of this article.
Election research shows that we have a strong tendency to vote for what our parents voted for. And if we don’t, we’ll be happy to vote for something that’s pretty close to politics. Between 1933 and 1993, the AP was roughly 40% in the parliamentary elections, and there was much talk of 36.9 in the 1993 elections.
Read the case: MDG wants to save the automotive world, using the crown as a pretext
In 2020, Norway has approximately 2.5 million voters who were born before 1975. This means that approximately half of these voters grew up again in a household where the parents voted / voted AP. There is an important group of voters. It is also the oldest group of voters in the country, where they are all over 45 years old.
If you do not understand who these voters are, you will not win the elections in Norway. Therefore, the AP’s marriage to the MDGs in Oslo is a good example of political suicide.
Let’s take a closer look at a seemingly insignificant political decision. When the MDG city council for the environment and transport earlier this year decided to close Kongsveien, one of the main traffic routes to / from the Nordstrand district in Oslo, it came as a huge surprise to the 52,000 who live there.
There was no clear political process beforehand, no information, no prior analysis, no impact evaluation, and no logical justification.
The reason given by the City Council of the ODM in June of this year was: “The situation in the crown has caused a strong reduction in the capacity of public transport, so we will stop the traffic by car and put more people on bicycles, and with this we will reduce the risk of infection. ”
Yes, you read that right. Therefore, cut the car to get less to take public transport. Balle Klorin at the Super Council would have been proud.
And when the city council was pressured to make other arguments, the city lied. The city council said the stretch of road was among the most dangerous in Oslo. But when they reviewed the figures from the Norwegian Public Roads Administration, they showed that the section in question in Kongsveien has had four (4) minor bicycle rollover injuries in the last twenty (20) years. Once again, the city council found the arguments of its own imagination, without a single analysis or number to refer to.
And voters thought: the party with 10 percent of the capital’s voters overrules the 90 percent majority without hesitation. Then local democracy woke up.
In three days, from June 14 to June 17 this year, the Facebook group gained 4,000 members against the City Council’s decision on the MDGs, and on June 17, ODM crawled to the cross and abandoned the shutdown by Kongsveien.
The Labor Party in central Oslo also thought that the MDG’s infatuation with “time signal decisions” had gone too far, called the city council and gave it a “way out.” But the PA could not, of course, celebrate the ODM City Council restructuring operation as a political victory, as they are still married to the ODM.
Thus, the Labor Party lost in a case that the party did not want, did not want, and did not come, and in which it finally agreed with the majority. It’s well done.
But what really happened at Nordstrand? Why did the commitment get so big, so fast? With its 52,000 inhabitants, the Nordstrand district is as large as the entire Bodø municipality. The district has relatively few jobs outside of the local service industries, so residents have to move out of the district to go to work.
In addition, the district has large litters. Here are several of Norway’s largest primary and lower secondary schools, which in turn have provided a wide offer for children and young people, especially in sports. These activities are mostly parent-led.
Read more fresh opinions on Nettavisen
The daily life of the average adult voters in this district (as in many other districts in Norway) is:
Eating breakfast with the kids, going to work outside the neighborhood, coming home for dinner, being with the kids for training or fighting, then coming home for dinner. And what is usually the solution to make up these days? Yes, use the fastest means of transport. Car.
The Nordstrand resident does not get round-trip work at Telenor Fornebu, at Ahus in Lørenskog, IKEA Furuset or the recycling facility at Klemetsrud, before having to take the children to games at Asker, Oppsal, Bærums Verk or Fjellhamar without having a working car and road network. .
Therefore, the MDGs are met with outrage by much of the population of Oslo. They cut the umbilical cord to the life that the inhabitants have chosen to live. Thus, the AP loses a few thousand voters each time the party tacitly agrees to the decision to temporarily sign the MDGs.
Not because voters don’t want to pay tolls, not because voters don’t want to drive an electric car, not because voters are upset about electric scooters, but because the quick and ill-informed decisions of the MDGs have important consequences for the implementation of the daily life of people.
A day to day that includes work, community and a huge voluntary (and selfless) effort for local associations and sports teams, children and youth.
And what does this have to do with sheep? Yes, the group of voters described above has grown up in a reasonably compatible Norway. Their cultural references dating back to childhood, adolescence, and early adulthood are strikingly similar.
Also read: ODM changes after protests: Kongsveien remains open
Almost everyone learned about working life from a fairly young age, whether they were apprentices, had an occasional job next to the existing school when they were 15 years old, rode their bikes with newspapers, picked strawberries during the summer holidays, or bought products at prices. at the local store. All of the undersigned’s fellow students in the senior high school class in 1982 had jobs next to the school.
It is very easy for this group of voters to identify with people who work hard, who do not give up, who keep going, who are active, who are not snobbish, who have prospects of patience. The group likes people who are similar to their own parenting models.
So they sincerely applaud both the second-generation immigrant family that keeps the local Joker store open, the nurses who sweat in the draft, and the sheep farmer who works around the clock on rugged terrain in Telemark. , Trøndelag or Nordland.
This group of voters knows where the chops come from and how much work it takes to keep the local Indian restaurant open. It’s what you give to the community that shows who you are. That’s why Jan Bøhler’s transition to SP is so interesting. Regardless of what has transpired internally between the Oslo PA leadership and Bøhler himself, it has certainly become a symbol of what many potential AP voters know.
It’s a much shorter path for the Center Party sheep farmer in Nordland than it is for the ODM cyclist in Grunerløkka. It is completely incomprehensible that the AP in Oslo or centrally does not understand this.
“City and country, hand in hand”? Yes, definitely if you are going to win the parliamentary elections in 2021, 2025, 2029, 2033 and 2037. So large is the group of voters +45. They are so similar and they get so old.
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