Now it will be decided – and it can happen here – VG

“Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania”.

“Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania”.

“Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania”.

These four words have been repeated in the American media for the past two weeks. TV station pundits, analysts, and numerical analysts cannot stress enough often how important these statements can become when votes will soon be counted.

Get the latest news in the election study: Recent measurements, forecasts and news.

Crossed

The explanation is basically pretty simple:

In total, there were only 77,744 votes between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in these rust belt states four years ago, but all three ended in Trump’s favor. By a narrow margin, it moved three states from Democratic in 2012 to Republican in 2016.

That secured him enough voters to become the 45th president of the United States.

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It also means that, in theory, all Joe Biden needs to do to win this year’s election is turn his back on these three. And in pure number theory, it shouldn’t take more than 77,747 votes. In practice, “nothing” in a country with almost 330 million inhabitants. At least affordable.

All other states can remain as they were. Democrats don’t have to win without going through states like Texas, North Carolina, Arizona, or Georgia. Not Florida, where they were pretty close.

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This is why the two candidates have nearly bombarded Wisconsin, Michigan, and especially Pennsylvania with election campaign events in recent days. It bites because it takes very little to turn them over. Trump because he has to defend them. They have traveled from one place to another.

VG has done the same.

Compared to Nazi Germany

On our journey, we have met three voters that we had also met before. On various occasions over the past few years, everyone has more or less expressed doubts about who will get their vote this year. Now they have decided.

Daniel Irwin (60), from a slightly worn house on a Wisconsin farm, walks out into the yard wearing a face mask. He says we should keep our distance. Infection rates have skyrocketed in your district recently.

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That’s really all you need to say before we’re pretty sure who gets the vote for the farmer, who two and a half years ago told us he didn’t vote for Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump in 2016.

Bandage use and social distancing have become so politically charged in the United States that when someone actively asks us for it, they are more likely not a Trump voter.

It turns out to be a correct assumption.

– I have already voted. Things have only gone downhill for us as a country since you were last here. It is not certain that my voice makes life easier for me as a farmer, but there is no doubt that it is the best for the country. I wish more people could think that way, says Irwin.

In an area where many around him will vote for Donald Trump, the 60-year-old’s verdict is ruthless on a president who he believes has clear fascist traits:

– I’m terrified of how he’s doing, and I don’t understand that so many here in America are about to fall into the same shit that the Germans did in the 1930s.

Here are the measurements in Wisconsin:

Decided after discussions

Less than two months ago, we met Gaetano Buonsante, 23, in the mid-sized town of Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania. By then he still hadn’t decided to whom he would cast his vote.

He liked what the president did for the economy before the crown pandemic, but felt the former vice president had a moral map that was more in line with his. It was just easier to live with Biden’s views on social issues.

The insurance agent wanted to see the discussions before making his decision.

– The first debate was useless, but I made my decision a few days after the second debate, says Buonsante when we meet again two days before everything is decided.

Trump and the economy triumphed over Biden and morale.

Here are the measurements in Pennsylvania:

– I heard what Biden said about how he will handle the corona pandemic, but he did not let me convince that he has a clear plan. Nor do I believe that now, as many companies are struggling after the pandemic, is the right time to increase the minimum wage, as he wants, says the 23-year-old, who intends to cast his vote today.

Would Vote Trump Over Clinton – Again

In a Detroit, Michigan suburb, Bill Sisk (69) invites us into the living room for the third time. The first time we were at the pensioner’s home was in the fall of 2017. Then it had been a year since the former Democrat-elect had cast his vote for Donald Trump.

He said it was because he trusted Hillary Clinton even less.

When we met him again in the summer of 2019, he explained that Trump could quickly regain his voice. It depends on which candidate the Democrats end up with.

Just over a year later, he’s happy it was Joe Biden. The vote was mailed two weeks ago.

– There was too much chaos and lies with Trump. There is something new every day. I could list 50 things that drive me crazy about him. I finally sat down with the feeling that he didn’t know what he was doing.

The corona pandemic was great, he says.

Check out Michigan rapper Myya Jones’ music video for “Dump Trump”:

But, Sisk explains, it is not certain that the vote would have been for the Democrats had they ended up with another candidate. He wasn’t comfortable with the rest of the pack. And he had still voted for Trump before Clinton.

Also, Trump has done something very important for the former local politician. He has appointed three conservative judges who give him hope for stricter abortion rules. For Bill Sisk, this is the most important issue.

– In that sense, he has made the profit for himself.

Here are the measurements in Michigan:

Biden versus measurements

The three old acquaintances that VG has met in the last few days do not, of course, need to be representative of how these elections end in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Will Leslie Rossis Trump House in Pennsylvania:

But in opinion polls, Joe Biden is ahead of all three states. So much so that if Donald Trump wants to win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, they have to make more mistakes than they did when they had Hillary Clinton at the helm at the same time four years ago.

At least in the first two. In Pennsylvania, he’s exactly in the latter’s margin of error.

In other words, Clinton’s lead was smaller than Bidens’.

Measurement Problems: Therefore, no one dares to predict that Biden will win:

It may take time before the winner is ready

Another question is whether we will really know who won these states on election night. With a record number of mail-in ballots due to the corona pandemic, it is expected to take longer, because none of the three states allow counting to begin before Election Day.

The winner of the elections can still be ready Tuesday night US time, for example, Biden leading these states in a big way. It is expected that there will be more votes for Democrats among the early votes, or Trump to lead so much that Biden cannot be expected to catch him again even with the early votes.

But there is also the possibility that we will know how it will end if Biden wins other auspicious states, which Trump won last. If you win, say, Texas or Florida, or both even, you could become the next president of the United States even if you lose one or more of the three rust belt states.

In any case, Donald Trump or Joe Biden will take office on January 20 of next year. The next few hours, days or weeks will show which one it will be.

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