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IT MAY SURPRISE: Despite the fact that Trump has lagged behind Biden in the polls, there are many indications that the election will be more fluid than expected. Photo: Evan Vucci / AP
Trump leads the polls for the first time in the important state of Florida, just a week before Election Day. A Republican victory here could mean the final election result is postponed.
According to figures from Realclearpolitics, Trump is 0.4 percentage point ahead of Biden in the average Florida polls, after a strong rebound last week.
Unlike the “safe” states, which generally have a large Republican or Democratic majority each year, the swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida are the most crucial to winning the election.
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Biden still leads about 7.2 percent in national opinion polls.
However, the electoral system in the United States works so that the president is not appointed based on who gets the most votes himself, but based on who manages to win more than the total of 538 voters distributed among the different states.
This contributed to Trump winning the last election in 2016, even though opponent Hillary Clinton received multiple votes overall. In the last election, Trump managed to secure 29 voters in Florida after a narrow victory in the state.
Must mobilize voters
Eirik Løkke, a consultant at Civita, notes that opinion polls have been much more stable compared to what he has seen in previous elections.
– It is important to look at the average of the surveys. Support for Trump plummeted when he was diagnosed with corona, so it’s not necessarily dramatic for Biden that he recovers now, he tells VG.
The political lines of conflict in the United States have become more polarized in recent years, which, according to the American expert, can make it difficult for Republicans and Democrats to move voters between them.
– The question is who manages to mobilize the voters the most. It’s not very strange that it levels off a bit in the national average, but we’ll see if it stabilizes, says Løkke.
EXPERT IN THE UNITED STATES: Eirik Løkke, consultant at Civita. Photo: CF-WESENBERG
You can change the outcome of the elections
So far, more than 71 million early votes have been cast, corresponding to around 51% of all votes cast in the 2016 elections.
The ongoing corona pandemic has prompted several of the voters to use so-called “postal ballots”, where they receive and fill out the ballot from home.
The speed with which votes by mail are counted varies by state. In Pennsylvania, another major state of flux, it accepts mail-in ballots received within three days of Election Day on November 3.
– Florida has taken steps to count the votes very quickly so that we get a preliminary result. That’s why it’s extremely exciting with Florida, says Eirik Løkke.
Trump has repeatedly claimed that mail-in votes will contribute to cheating during elections and that he may not accept the election result if he loses.
Therefore, Eirik Løkke believes that the election may take longer if Biden does not have a higher majority during the vote count on November 3.
– If it is even, both parties will appeal to the judiciary, and then it will be decided in the Supreme Court on December 8, he says.
ELECTION READY: Presidential candidate Joe Biden during an election rally in Atlanta on October 27. Photo: Drew Angerer / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA
I should try to secure the elections early
– It’s hard to say why Trump seems to be taking the lead in Florida. He has run a tough campaign in these tip states, Randall Stephens tells VG.
He is a teacher of British and American studies at UiO, and is originally from Kansas.
“This is reminiscent of the kind of shock we had in 2016, when Trump won the state despite opinion polls suggesting that Hillary was clearly going to win,” he said.
So far, significantly more Democratic voters have cast advance votes. However, the professor believes that a proportionally greater number of Republican voters will run on the same day as the election.
– Therefore, Democrats should try to secure their votes early to ensure the outcome of the election, says Stephens.
POST VOTES: UiO Professor Randall Stephens believes Democrats are better at using the postal voting system, which is not necessarily just an advantage. Photo: UiO
The professor believes that the large number of early voting may indicate an unusually large commitment around this year’s election, even though the United States tends to have little turnout compared to other countries in Europe.
– The US record for qualified participation dates back to 1908, when about 65 percent exercised their right to vote. It looks like minority and youth votes will be higher this year, so maybe we’re experiencing something similar now, Stephens says.
