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Messages about hope or fighting propaganda and fake news could affect this year’s Nobel Peace Prize, experts believe.
There are 318 candidates nominated for this year’s Nobel Peace Prize, of which 211 are individuals and 107 are organizations. The winner of the 2020 Peace Prize will be announced at the Nobel Institute in Oslo at 11 a.m. on Friday morning.
2020 has been an extraordinary year marked by a pandemic, massive polarization, and an all-consuming presidential election campaign. The World Health Organization (WHO) has been a major player in the management of a global pandemic.
Sacrificing the WHO opportunities
Several betting companies, according to Time magazine and CNN, point to the WHO as a clear favorite for the generous price. But experts doubt the organization is particularly relevant.
– I don’t think it’s particularly likely. It is conceivable in the long term that I will receive an award for medicine for fighting pandemics, but not that this year we will receive an award for mastery of peace that is related to the pandemic. On the contrary, I think the Nobel Committee wants to focus on some of the important issues that have been overshadowed by the pandemic, says the director of the Peace Research Institute (PRIO), Henrik Urdal, to Nettavisen.
– The pandemic does not need more attention. The problem is that wars, conflicts and human rights defenders appear to a much lesser extent due to the pandemic, says Urdal.
Read also: Peace Prize Winner: – War is hell on earth
The director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) also does not think WHO is a likely candidate.
– I am not sure if the WHO has been nominated, as the nomination deadline expired in January. The Nobel Committee has rightly expanded the definition of the concept of peace, but I don’t know if I want to say that health falls within that definition, SIPRI director Dan Smith tells Nettavisen.
– In addition, several questions were raised about the management of WHO at the beginning of the pandemic. In that case, you may need to wait a little longer before awarding an award. Unfortunately, it is the case that the pandemic started this year, but will not end this year, Smith says.
WHO stands out as a huge favorite among bookmakers. The photo shows Secretary General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus wearing a face mask.
Photo: Christopher Black (AP)
– Message of hope to the world
Rather, Smith believes that the Nobel Committee will choose a prize winner who can give hope.
– Without any progress in the peace processes, the most probable and the best that the Nobel Committee will do is to give a message of hope to the world. This can be done in two ways. Whether it’s honoring an institution or honoring a movement, Smith says.
True to tradition, the head of PRIO has also prepared this year a list of the top five candidates he believes deserve the highest Nobel Peace Prize. PRIO has been quite successful in recent years with its qualified guesses. The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) tops this year’s list.
– We believe that a journalist award would have been successful and good this year. We point this out very specifically, because we think it is closely related to the core of the Peace Prize. We are concerned that there is a lot of propaganda in conflicts where actors in the conflict try to exaggerate the abuse of the other party. So the fact that independent journalists are present and able to report on these conflicts is the single most important source for world opinion, but also for state leaders and humanitarian organizations, Urdal says.
– A journalist award also speaks of another of the great challenges of our time. And that’s the way information generally flows, and fact-checks and fake news affect not just countries in conflict, but every country in the world. And, of course, it represents a threat to democratic and stable societies. Protecting these democratic rules of the game is also important for long-term stability. It will also be an award for the fight against fake news, as I see it, says Urdal.
The director of PRIO, Henrik Urdal.
Photo: Prio
Fridays for Future and Greta Thunberg
Teenager and climate activist Greta Thunberg was among the big favorites last year. He received a great deal of praise for his thunderous speech at the UN last fall. But Thunberg is also a favorite and easy target for climate skeptics. Among other things, he ended up in a Twitter fight with the most powerful man in the world last year: President Trump. Thunberg is known for her strikes at climate schools and for traveling around the climate-friendly world to spread her message.
Smith says that Fridays for Future, an international environmental movement that uses school strikes to combat climate change, will be a worthy winner if the Nobel Committee wants to honor a movement.
Read also: Thunberg: – Nothing has really been done
– I think Fridays for Future has been the most inspiring movement in recent years. I think there are many who speculate about Greta Thunberg, but I hope that the Nobel Committee will not give it just to her, but to various activists around the world. There are so many wonderful young leaders in this movement who are in their teens or twenties. I think a collective prize should be awarded, so Thunberg could be one of them, says Smith.
Dan Smith is the director of the SIPRI Peace Research Center.
Photo: Dan Smith
Urdal praises Thunberg’s efforts, but is not sure whether the climate fight is compatible with peace work.
– She was on everyone’s lips last year. I am one of those people who thinks he is doing a wonderful job. But I also think it’s important for us to emphasize that there is no scientific agreement that climate change leads to conflict, says Urdal.
New award to the UN?
The director of SIPRI puts a button on the UN or the WFP if the Nobel Committee chooses to award the award to an institution.
– If it is an institution, I lean towards the UN. I know they have received the award before (shared between the UN and Secretary General Kofi Annan in 2001), but they can do it again. The UN turns 75 this year. And maybe even an award for Secretary General António Guterres, who has stood up for the organization through a difficult time, Smith says.
– Another institution could be the World Food Program (WFP), since food security is a basis for human security, he says.
Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny was poisoned during a visit to Tomsk in Siberia. Here he is depicted in a Berlin hospital. PRIO highlights him as a possible favorite.
Photo: (NTB scanpix)
Other favorites
The PRIO director also singles out Sudanese activist Alaa Salah and the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) protest movement as potential favorites, placing them second at the top of the list.
– Sudan is the only conflict in which there has been progress and a very positive evolution with the fall of a dictator (Omar al-Bashir) and a non-violent protest movement. However, I think one is still in a process that has not gone that far yet, so it may be too early with a peace prize, Urdal says.
Third is Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who was recently the center of attention after he was tried to assassinate him by poisoning. Navalny is especially known for his fight against corruption.
– He was on our list before he was poisoned, says Urdal.
In fourth place, PRIO has placed the Chinese dissidents. Ilham Tohti is a critic of the Uighur regime, while Nathan Law Kwun-chung is a politician and activist who has distinguished himself during the mass protests in Hong Kong.
– We have had decades of progress and democratization since the Cold War. Now we see a decline. This is a concern that the Nobel Committee sees and is concerned about, Urdal says.
In fifth place are the young Libyan peace activist Hajer Sharief and the young human rights activist Ilwad Elman from Somalia.
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