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On Tuesday afternoon, updated figures from the National Institute of Public Health show that only one new case of the mutated British virus variant has been recorded since January 4. The new case was registered on January 11.
However, no new cases of the South African virus variant have been recorded in Norway since January 4. Thus, in Norway a total of 24 cases of the British variant and one case of the South African variant have been recorded.
The UK and South African variants of the mutated virus are said to be significantly more contagious than previous variants of the coronavirus.
In a risk assessment of new virus variants, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health has concluded that there is a high probability that the British and South African virus variants are more contagious and a high probability that they will spread in Norway.
Importsmitte
NTNU professor of social medicine Steinar Westin tells Dagbladet that it is especially important to prevent the importation of variants of the mutated virus from abroad.
– I’m a bit upset and think it’s strange that I don’t have better import infection control. It is true that it is a logistical challenge to enforce the mandatory testing measure upon arrival in Norway from the red countries. But sadly, imported infection is still a major factor in the Norwegian infection landscape, Westin tells Dagbladet.
– It is important to prevent import infection mainly for two reasons: it implies a generally higher infection pressure against Norway and, furthermore, import infection implies a much higher risk of Norway contracting more cases of the British and South African virus variants . Of course, we want to keep them at a distance.
Sequencing
The National Institute of Public Health uses so-called whole genome sequencing to identify different variants of the coronavirus. The method is used both to discover the properties of different coronavirus variants and to distinguish coronavirus variants from each other. This can, for example, help provide a better overview of where in the world variants of the virus have been imported.
Westin rates Norway’s analytical skills as low.
– One of the problems in Norway is that we clearly have little analytical capacity. In this way, we get a poor view of the scope of the different variants compared to Denmark, which has a much higher analytical capacity and completely sequences many more viruses than Norway. The consequence may be that Norway does not have time to act in time. A new and more contagious virus variant can quickly become dominant, as the Danes fear it will already be for them in February, Westin says.
The professor hopes that Norway can reduce the overall infection pressure as a result of the measures that were introduced on January 3.
– The pressure of infection in Norway in the new year was definitely higher than many of us feared. We knew that Christmas and New Years celebrations would give a contagious hangover. The government was probably prepared for this too, but I think the increase in infection was greater than they had imagined.
The changes
In assessing the risks of newer variants of the virus, the National Institute of Public Health states that there may be reasons why the changes we see in the British variant of the virus occurred.
“Perhaps this development has taken place rapidly in the case of a long-term infection in a person with a weakened immune system.7 It is unlikely that the variant developed by gradual changes along a chain of infection in England. So I would have been caught up in virus monitoring earlier, “writes FHI and continues:
“However, development may have taken place over time in other countries with weaker or no virus tracking, but this does not explain the large number of changes.” It is also conceivable that the variant developed in animals that were infected by humans and later transmitted to humans.
