Hidden factors that can give Trump victory – VG

– There are more unknown factors than ever. Problems with the instruments we use to predict election results, opinion polls, and other tools are based on normal elections. This is not a normal election, Tom Bonier, director of the democratic analysis firm TargetSmart, tells the Politico newspaper.

According to opinion polls by VG in collaboration with 270toWin, Biden has 52 percent support, while Trump has 43 percent. Five percent did not want to answer in the survey.

But in the American election, it’s not about getting the most votes nationally, it’s about getting at least 270 voters from various states.

Many of the states consider themselves Republicans or Democrats and therefore presidential candidates spend a minimal amount of money and time in these states. The other states, the so-called inflection states, are the ones that decide the choice. It’s also where both Donald Trump and Joe Biden have spent the most time and energy in recent weeks.

According to opinion polls, Biden has 183 “safe” and 76 “likely” voters, or 259, just 11 of the 270 he needs to win.

Donald Trump, on the other hand, has 72 “safe” and 53 “probable,” while he’s too even to predict which side the remaining 154 voters end up on.

The BBC highlights 14 states that will decide the elections. According to the channel’s figures, Biden leads in up to 12 of them, of which seven are states that Trump won in 2016.

Read more here: The states that decide the election

However, Democrats dare not be too optimistic.

– You never know what kind of insanity Trump might throw into the mix. Every day feels like a week and every week feels like a month. It will feel very long between now and Nov. 3, Democrat Matt Bennett tells Politico.

The newspaper points out several hidden variables that can help influence the election outcome, but cannot be measured with forecasts and opinion polls. This is known as the Biden horror scenario:

• Many votes may not be valid for various reasons or may not be counted for other reasons. In the state of Pennsylvania, the Supreme Court has ruled that ballots sent without the correct envelope will not count. 100,000 votes are feared to be invalid in the state. Republicans have also obtained in several other states through court decisions that can render votes invalid, such as. that they do not arrive on time.

Read also: Voice Act creates uproar in Florida: – Madness

“I predict that in the coming weeks, the euphoria of the Democrats will be cause for concern that so many young voters have not cast their ballots,” wrote Michael McDonald, who heads the Election Project, in an analysis last week, Politico writes.

In a normal election year, this would not be a problem. Then the volunteer Democrats would go door-to-door to get these votes, but they won’t this year due to the crown pandemic.

In addition, Politico points out, among other things, these points by which the result of the elections may be different from what opinion polls and forecasts show:

• Some believe that more people will not vote on Election Day because they fear being threatened at the polls, even after Trump’s comment during the presidential debate against Joe Biden, in which he urged his voters to go to the polls “to continue de close”. Many Democrats have voted early, while big impressions from Trump’s voters are expected on Election Day.
• Many, especially local Republicans, believe that many voters, for various reasons, do not want to testify in opinion polls that they support and vote for Trump.
• In several states, Biden’s leadership is so small that it is within what may be a margin of error.
• The elections four years ago showed that things can change in recent weeks and that opinion polls are not always correct.