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BRUSSELS (Aftenposten): If Donald Trump loses the US elections in two weeks, there will still be no peace or tolerance in the world’s most powerful military alliance.
There have been many meetings between NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in recent years. But there has been no tea party. Photo: Kayhan Ozer / AP / NTB
Jens Stoltenberg’s tenure as head of NATO is coming to an end. Twice his trust has been extended. In 2022, it was over.
But there is nothing to suggest that Stoltenberg can sail into the sunset.
He still has to deal with a US president on the defensive, an aggressive Russian president on the offensive, and a Turkish ally who refuses to play on the team.
This week there was a meeting of NATO defense ministers. Then these problems resurfaced.
Has gone from bad to worse
– I remember it very well, at the beginning of 2014, when I was asked for the first time to become Secretary General of NATO. The world was a very different place.
This is how Jens Stoltenberg opened his speech at a security conference in Bratislava two weeks ago. The speech was not news at the time. But Stoltenberg’s message was dramatic enough: the world has become more dangerous, more insecure, and unpredictable.
The challenges have not diminished over the years as NATO Secretary General. In addition to all the problems, NATO must also deal with the crown crisis. Photo: Petros Giannakouris / AP / NTB
The three difficult men of Stoltenberg
Vladimir Putin: In Stoltenberg’s speech, Russia and the country’s president had to review.
“Since then, in 2014, Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula, increased its military presence on our borders, infiltrated elections, poisoned and attempted to assassinate political opponents, and pursued massive force-building in Europe,” Stoltenberg said of the growing threat from Russia.
Russia has been one of the main challenges facing the NATO secretary general.
Donald Trump: Jens Stoltenberg has spent a lot of time taming Donald Trump and softening his unpredictable style and insults of state leaders.
The breakfast summit during the NATO summit in Brussels has become a star example of Trump’s unpredictability. Photo: Kevin Lamarque / Reuters / NTB
- At the NATO summit in Brussels in the summer of 2018, Trump threatened to remove the United States from NATO if more countries did not contribute more to defense budgets.
- He has insulted Angela Merkel at a breakfast and has bombarded the alliance with very undiplomatic Twitter messages.
- At the NATO summit in London before Christmas 2019, he embarrassed the queen and left the meeting before it was over.
The Turkish problem child
Recep Tayyip Erdogan: If Donald Trump lost the presidential election, it is time for a strong successor to Trump: Turkey’s autocratic and increasingly authoritarian President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Turkey was not on the agenda for the defense ministers meeting, but the country’s controversial foreign policy was once again an issue.
Turkey is one of the countries that Jens Stoltenberg has visited the most times during his time as head of NATO. Meetings with Recep Tayyip Erdogan have rarely been of those Photo: Christian Hartmann / Reuters / NTB
The war in Nagorno-Karabakh has broken out again this fall. Armenia and Azerbaijan face off.
- NATO is not a party to this conflict, but Turkey has become the country of NATO. Turkey is Azerbaijan’s main supporter and has also contributed weapons to the conflict.
- Armenia’s prime minister says there is no diplomatic solution to the conflict and has asked Armenians to volunteer for the front.
- Inside NATO, anger increases: France accuses Azerbaijan of initiating the massacre. President Emmanuel Macron accuses Turkey of contributing to a dangerous escalation.
- Now the fear is that the Russians will end up in a military conflict with Turkey, a NATO country.
The problems pile up
The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is only the latest of Turkey’s problems.
- Buy enemy defense equipment: Last summer, Turkey signed an agreement with Russia to buy its S-400 air defense system. The purchase is controversial because it is not compatible and cannot be used with NATO systems. But Turkey has refused to cancel the rockets and has already started testing the equipment. US Ambassador to NATO Kay Bailey Hutchison believes Turkey has crossed the “red line” by pushing for the purchase.
- Two NATO countries threatened with war with each other: This summer, the NATO countries, Greece and Turkey, were on the brink of war. Then, Turkey resumed exploration drilling for gas in the waters off Cyprus. An area of Greece and Turkey is disputed. Stoltenberg again had to board the plane to Ankara to calm the Turks. NATO has set up a military “hotline,” a direct channel between Turkey and Greece, to avoid clashes.
- Attack on NATO supporters in Syria: It also drew attention when Turkey in October 2019 attacked the Kurdish YPG militia in Syria. It has been fundamental in the fight against IS and has been supported by NATO.
- Turkey’s self-image: The Turks are not known for their humility either. Erdogan believes that Turkey is more important to Europe than Europe to Turkey.
From one willful leader to another: Jens Stoltenberg has often played the role of mediator between “strong” men such as Donald Trump and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Photo: Christian Hartmann / Reuters / NTB
Turkish pepper
– It is true that Turkey is one of the NATO countries that I have visited the most times. This reflects that the country is an important ally, Stoltenberg says diplomatically when Aftenposten asks about frequent travel activities to Ankara.
– What is it like to have a NATO ally that is waging war against another NATO country, threatening to open borders and trigger a new migration crisis and buying Russian weapons systems that are not compatible with NATO systems?
– Turkey is in many difficult situations. We have expressed our concern about some of the decisions that Turkey has taken. That is why it has also been important to visit Turkey.
Patience with Turkey within the NATO family begins to weaken. The United States and France are the most critical. Photo: Yves Herman / Reuters / NTB
– Why does this have no consequences for Turkey?
– NATO cannot sanction individual countries. But there is a disagreement within the alliance on how to deal with Turkey, says Stoltenberg.
– But it must not be forgotten that Turkey has also contributed constructively in the fight against terrorism. They are also one of the largest contributors to our training operations in Afghanistan, Kosovo and Iraq. And Turkey has made important civil contributions in the crown crisis, says Jens Stoltenberg.
