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He believes there is an important reason why Prime Minister Erna Solberg eats at the red-green parties.
The bourgeois side of the Storting takes the lead for the red-green parties ten months before the elections in Sentio’s Nettavisen November poll. An advantage that parties have had in the polls for a long time.
– Erna Solberg’s reelection opportunities are still around, and conservatives are doing well in the polls right now, says election researcher Johannes Bergh of Nettavisen’s Department of Social Research.
In the poll, the Conservatives are the largest party in the country, with 25 percent support. At the same time, its government partner KrF has overcome the barrier. When the Center Party also declines drastically, the bourgeois parties take a real shake-up of the Storting seats.
– In that case, it will be historic, and you have to go back to the time of Einar Gerhardsen to find something similar, says Bergh that Solberg can be re-elected for a third term.
See the results for all parts below.
Also read: The Center Party is drastically declining in a new poll: Ignite hope for the bourgeoisie
– It can be saved by the crisis of the crown.
Bergh believes there is an important reason why the Conservatives are doing so well now.
– I think the most important explanation that exists is the crisis of the crown, and that voters have a fairly clear perception that it has been handled in a good way. And there, the Conservatives have many of the key players in government, he says, noting:
– This is a crisis that is going to last for a long time, so it is not inconceivable that it will be relevant in next year’s parliamentary elections.
GET IT RIGHT: Election researcher Johannes Bergh of the Department of Social Research believes the crown crisis is the reason the Conservatives are doing so well in the polls right now, and that it may affect next year’s election .
Photo: Photo: Kyrre Lien / IFS
– So here Erna Solberg can be “saved” by the crisis of the crown?
– Yes, you can say that. That’s probably the explanation for why they’re doing so well now, says Bergh.
He notes that previous prime ministers have experienced the same.
– You have seen similar things before, for example when Jens Stoltenberg in 2009 in connection with the financial crisis, where there was a crisis in much of the world, and Norway did very well. So Stoltenberg managed to get reelected, he says.
Also read: If this happens, Erna wins again: it may be the first in recent Norwegian history
– A surprising reality
– But doesn’t the crisis in the crown have the same effect for the other government parties?
– It is a surprising reality that it is the conservatives who reward the voters. They have the prime minister and they are the ones who run the government, but it would not have been illogical that both KrF and the Liberal Party in government could have some of the same effect. You don’t see much of it, says Bergh.
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However, KrF advances a bit and ends up above the threshold of the barrier in the November Nettavisen poll, which is reflected in the mandates of the bourgeois side. The Liberal Party, by contrast, ends up below the threshold with 3 percent support.
– Which parties are below and above the threshold will be very important in the election of the Storting, emphasizes the electoral researcher.
If the Sentio poll had been the result of the elections, the ruling bourgeois parties together with Progreso would have had 81 parliamentary representatives. These are four representatives of the majority. With the Liberal Party also above the threshold, they would have had a majority.
FORWARD AND BACKWARD: As Conservatives and Health Minister Bent Høie (H) advance during the crown crisis, Liberal Party leader and Education Minister Guri Melby and her party are experiencing the opposite. – Surprising, believes the electoral researcher.
Photo: Jil Yngland (NTB scanpix)
– Definitely a headache
The red-green parties, the Labor Party, the Socialist People’s Party and the Center Party, would have 84 parliamentary representatives. Therefore, they would depend on the support of the MDGs or the Red Party for a majority. In the poll, the Center Party in particular declined, to a support of 16.4 percent. While the Labor Party advances somewhat, up to 21.9 percent.
– It is not at all certain that the three red-green parties will obtain a majority alone. Most measurements show they become dependent on MDG or Red, and it’s definitely a headache for Støre, says Bergh, explaining:
– There is a great political distance between the parties, but somehow they have to reach compromises in order to govern. But from the kind of drama you’ve had on the bourgeois side, it’s easy to imagine that you’ll get on the red-green side as well.
Also read: Divide on the red-green side: – Of course it is a confusing situation
Here’s the November poll:
– Why is the Fiesta del Centro returning now?
– They got to almost 20 percent in October, so I think it’s kind of an adjustment and that the Center Party, after all, has a ceiling on how high they can go, thinks Bergh.
He notes that the previous Sentio poll in October was also picked up just after Labor Party profile Jan Bøhler announced his transfer to the Center Party.
– 16 percent is historically very high for the Center Party. A measurement in relation to the passing of Jan Bøhler may have given a particularly high level, he says.
Read also: Moxnes asks for clarification: – He fears a slalom government with Støre
– ODM is a special party
At the same time, the Green Party (ODM) falls back in the poll and ends up below the threshold with a result of 3.5 percent.
– ODM is a special party that is linked to a theme, the weather. So they are probably more dependent than other parties on that particular topic being on the agenda. When the crown is on the agenda, there is less focus on the core MDG issues, and that must be the main reason they are declining, is Bergh’s analysis.
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