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Every four years, the government presents the Outlook Report, which has been prepared by the Ministry of Finance.
The outlook report outlines the government’s strategies to address the challenges Norway faces towards 2030 and 2060. And there are big challenges on the horizon for AS Norge:
– It is estimated that the oil industry will be cut in half in 2050 and pension spending will increase by several billion every year, opens Prime Minister Erna Solberg (H).
– If we do nothing, we will be losing five billion new each year, he adds.
Public sector bloat
The prime minister stresses that the government “can do a lot” to remedy AS Norge’s deficit. His main point is that more people have to work and that more jobs will be created in Norway in the coming years.
– The most important thing for us is to make sure that our children and grandchildren receive it as well or better than us.
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Currently, six out of ten crowns go through the public sector, and the sector has grown with Erna Solberg at the helm.
– The goal is a sustainable welfare society for all, says the Prime Minister.
Støre: – Not delivered
Although Finance Minister Jan Tore Sanner at NRK proclaimed this morning that Norway has “the best starting point in the world”, there are several dark clouds awaiting both the short and long term.
– The great challenge for Norway in the 1920s is to get more people to work. The big task will be to ensure a serious working life with full and permanent positions that allow young Norwegians to choose the important subjects that Norway needs. This is the great task that the current government has not fulfilled. More people working and a fairer distribution is the key to financing the welfare state in the long term, Labor leader Jonas Gahr Støre tells Dagbladet.
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Poorest of the pandemic
The pandemic has hit the Norwegian economy hard, skyrocketing the number of unemployed and prompted unprecedented withdrawals from the Oil Fund.
A committee led by Jon Gunnar Pedersen, created to analyze the consequences that the pandemic has had on the economy, concludes that it has impoverished Norway.
– This pandemic has impoverished us all, the entire Norwegian community. We have experienced the biggest economic recession since the war. This makes it even more important for state-funded housekeepers, Pedersen tells Dagens Næringsliv.
He presents his full report, “Norway towards 2025”, alongside today’s Outlook Report.
– A tire operation
The opposition is not satisfied with the government’s approach.
– The Conservatives’ presentation of the Outlook Report is a political cover-up operation. Conservatives want you to tighten your belt, while they themselves can make big tax cuts for the wealthiest, says SV’s Kari Elisabeth Kaski to Dagbladet.
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– We must and can expand the welfare state, if we redistribute from private wealth to common welfare. We can afford that if we have a financially responsible party at the helm instead of the Conservatives, he continues.
Fewer people employed
Several structural factors also work against us. Not least, it is a great challenge for the central government economy that there will be fewer people employed.
– In the coming decades, there will be fewer workers behind each retiree. Public spending will increase, without revenue increasing as much. At the same time, we will implement green change, says Sanner (H).
– We must continue to create more jobs in the private sector. Most of us want and expect improvements in wellness in the future. This means that we must work harder and smarter in the future, include more and focus on innovation and competition, says the Minister of Finance in a press release.
One in three must work in health
Sanner also spoke about some of the contents of the Perspective Report in an interview with NTB yesterday.
He is clear that the wave of aging will create a great need for more health and care workers.
Assuming a small improvement in quality in the next few years, according to Statistics Norway (SSB) projections, 110,000 more man-years will be needed in health and care in 2035.
By 2060, it will take almost 260,000 more man-years.
– If you use this as a base, you will go from every eighth employee who works in the health and care sector today to every third person who will have to do it in 2060, Sanner told NTB.
