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Norway can avoid 40,000 hospital admissions if we control the spread of the crown now.
If the spread of the infection is allowed to continue as it is now, the National Institute of Public Health models indicate that we will have 2.2 million corona infected and more than 68,000 hospitalized over the next year.
This is the horror scenario:
- Number of infected: 2.2 million
- Number of hospitals: 68,700 people
- Number of respirators: 4,260 people
The good news is that it is a projection that is based on the so-called reproduction number (R) that remains at 1.3, that is, 100 that are infected, on average, infect 130 new ones.
You can read more here: Projections of the National Institute of Public Health
If we get the R number below 1, the infection decreases. That is the dream scenario.
But even if we only manage to break the curve to 1.1, the development will be much better:
- Number of infected: 903,000 people
- Number of hospitals: 27,200 people
- Number on respirator: 1,770 people
HORROR SCENARIO: If R continues with 1.3 new cases of infection per infected person, then we receive almost 70,000 hospitalizations.
Photo: National Institute of Public Health
The Norwegian Institute of Public Health has not calculated how many people will die in the various examples. Treatment is reported to have improved and case fatality (proportion of deaths from infection) to have decreased. The big question is also whether and when we can get a vaccine.
So far, Norway has had 1,555 hospitalized. Of these, 262 have been in the intensive care unit and 48 have died.
DEATHS: Norway has had 282 deaths, but only 48 of them have occurred in hospitals.
Photo: National Institute of Public Health
When the deaths total more than 280, it is because the majority of those who died in the first wave were debilitated people who were in nursing homes and who died without receiving intensive care and a respirator, simply because they were considered too weak to tolerate it. .
The brutal math is so that 16.8 percent of all those admitted to the hospital have ended up in the intensive care unit, while 3.1 percent of those hospitalized have lost their lives as a result of the covid- 19.
If we assume that the future will be the same, then the horror scenario means that more than 2,000 will die, while we save more than 1,200 lives if we get R down from 1.3 to 1.1.
This, of course, is extremely speculative for several reasons:
a) We have not calculated any spread of the infection to nursing homes with new deaths without hospitalization.
b) We have not taken into account that fatality will decrease as treatment saves even more lives.
Plus, there’s one big bright spot: In none of the FHI scenarios does the number of people needing a respirator exceed the available capacity of 500.
Both in the population and among politicians, there is great support for corona measures that reduce infection. The requirements for a negative coronal test when entering from abroad should have been introduced a long time ago, and it is terrifying that 20 percent of the infection is imported from abroad, usually from Poland.
At the same time, the distribution of the sick is special: Immigrants make up about 15 percent of Norway’s population, but they account for 42 percent of the infection cases and 47 percent of the hospital admissions.
DEVELOPMENT: The dark blue belt from Bergen to Oslo has the highest number of infected per 100,000 inhabitants. The curve on the right shows the number being tested and the proportion infected.
Photo: National Institute of Public Health (Editing: Nettavisen)
Prime Minister Erna Solberg stressed today that there is no time to wait for the effect of the measures last week, before making new interventions. An alarming fact is that both the number of tests and the proportion of infected people are increasing. From last week to this alone, the proportion of infected people has increased by 45 percent and it is estimated that there are currently around 9,000 carriers in Norway.
After the close this spring, there was a great debate about whether the measures were really necessary and whether it was worth the price to save a number of human lives equivalent to those who normally die of flu in a normal season.
That criticism has subsided and the Covid-19 pandemic still claims millions of lives around the world. Some vaccines have not yet been developed, and models from the National Institute of Public Health indicate that we will benefit greatly from measures if they are followed loyally and have the effect that one thinks.
After all, there are 40,000 hospital admissions to save and reduce infection.
P.S! What do you mean? Are you afraid of coronary heart disease or do you think the new measures are too intrusive? Write a reader letter!
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