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Infection rates are increasing, but mainly because we are testing so many more than before.
Look at the photo of Prime Minister Erna Solberg and the green snake leaning towards her. The curve shows the calculation of R from the National Institute of Public Health, that is, the number that shows how many new people are infected by covid-19 infection.
As most people see, the curve oscillates above and below 1, and according to the latest figures from the National Institute of Public Health, R has a 95 percent probability between 0.95 and 1.14. So we keep the pandemic, with possible slight growth.
Norway remains a peaceful place in a world marked by pandemics.
This impression is inconsistent with daily news reports on how many people have been infected in the last 24 hours. It may give the impression of a freely developing pandemic, but that’s because one rarely compares to how many have been tested.
These are facts and analysis from the National Institute of Public Health:
- 1.6 million have been tested for crown.
- Of these, we have 17,232 covid 19 positives
- Around 93,000 people have had Covid 19.
- Of these, just under 1,200 have been hospitalized and 279 have died.
In March and April, 5 to 10 percent (which varies from week to week) of those tested were infected with Covid 19. In recent weeks, the figure has been around 1 percent. Therefore, part of the reported growth is due to the fact that we tested many more and naturally found many more infected as well.
MANY NEGATIVES: This curve shows the number of negative results (lines) and the proportion of infected (blue line). As can be seen, participation is increasing slightly, but well below the levels of this spring.
Models from the National Institute of Public Health indicate that 93,000 have had the disease, but only 59,000 of them have had symptoms. Of these, 15-18 percent have been reported to the health service as infected with the coronavirus.
Here you can see the numbers: Dear infected in Norway
The point is that it doesn’t make sense to compare the number of new infected in the last 24 hours with a similar number in March and April without including how many were tested in the two days. The number of hospital admissions also offers a completely different picture. According to the National Institute of Public Health, there are a handful of people day by day over the past week, and eight to ten times as many when the pandemic hit Norway this spring.
ADMISSIONS: The green line shows how many have been hospitalized in the last six months, while the stripes show how many are new overnight.
Photo: National Institute of Public Health
In the coming weeks and months, there will be heated discussions about how to balance the dangers of the corona pandemic with the economic and human consequences of closing the country again.
It’s a tough tradeoff because all options have tough human consequences. No one wants a new wave of deaths among elderly patients in Norwegian nursing homes and there is strong support for measures that can limit the pandemic.
But the discussion must be based on a real perception of the spread, and then it is essential that the figures are nuanced and not maximized by the crisis. My impression is that the professionals at the National Institute of Public Health have been reasonably balanced, but that sometimes a little gets lost in the subsequent public debate.
So far, infection figures indicate that Norwegian measures have been reasonably well dosed in relation to the human and economic consequences of the pandemic on society. It is by no means over.
Perhaps the infection increases further during the fall and winter, and perhaps it is time for new hard closures.
But now we are not there, according to figures from the National Institute of Public Health.
P.S! What do you mean? Are you afraid that the covid-19 pandemic will grow out of control also in Norway, or do you have confidence in the handling of the authorities? Write your opinion in a reader letter!
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