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On Monday, the World Health Organization warned that the death toll in Europe is likely to rise in the coming months. The warning comes a day after the WHO reported the largest increase in corona infection in a single day, with 307,930 new cases registered.
But the warning also comes at a time when many have noted that corona deaths in Europe have remained low, despite the sharp rise in infection.
Figures from the European Agency for the Control of Communicable Diseases (ECDC) show that the death toll in Europe has been stable for more than two months.
This is how Deputy Health Minister Espen Nakstad and FHI Chief Medical Officer Preben Aavitsland explain the sensational death graph.
– Explanation in three parts
– The reason is probably threefold, Nakstad tells Dagbladet.
He believes that the first reason is that one picks up more obscure numbers with increasing testability.
– By testing many more people than before, more of them are found to have a mild disease that was previously “dark numbers.” This contributes to a lower death rate among all covid-19-positive people, the so-called “case fatality rate.”
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Second, Nakstad believes that a higher proportion of younger people test positive than before.
– These tend to contract a mild illness and do not contribute to as many hospital admissions as older people, says Nastad.
Aavitsland also highlights age as a common denominator for those who have recently been heavily infected.
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– The local outbreaks that have occurred here in Norway in recent weeks have mainly affected youth and young adults, and people of that age almost never have a severe course or die of coronary heart disease. Therefore, we now see few hospitalizations and deaths. This may change if the outbreaks eventually spread to the elderly or nursing homes, Aavitsland tells Dagbladet.
The third factor that Nakstad believes helps reduce mortality is that people in risk groups are good at protecting themselves. Therefore, they are not as affected as a group, compared to the situation in March and April.
Does not rule out mutations
Recently, some have argued that the coronavirus has become less deadly since the worst pandemic.
Oxford University senior statistician Jason Oke is among those who have pointed out that the death toll in England has dropped by as much as 55-80 percent, depending on the numbers used.
– This does not seem to be the same deadly disease that we saw before, when we saw a large number of people die, he tells the scientific journal NewScientists.
Total alarm over skeptics
Nakstad believes that we cannot rule out that virus mutations over time may contribute to changing infectivity and morbidity among people who receive COVID-19.
The risk of such virus mutations increases the more the infection spreads, he explains.
Nakstad believes, however, that there is weak evidence to say that this has happened today.
– So far, there is no strong evidence that the SARS-CoV-2 virus has changed any of these properties significantly, but we must be prepared for that to happen.
Aavitsland also doesn’t believe the claim that the virus has become less dangerous is valid.
– No, there is nothing to suggest that. The simple explanation for the apparently lower risk of death now, that is, many cases and few deaths, is a change in the age distribution of those infected. For children and adolescents, this is still a fairly harmless disease, while for the elderly it is a very serious disease. As soon as the epidemic reaches the old ones, the death toll will rise.
– Were fewer young people infected in March / April?
– No, so there was a lot of infection also among the young in Norway this spring, but there was also a lot of infection among the elderly, and that was what led to several deaths, says Aavitsland.
It does not ignore the fact that the low number of hospital admissions and deaths can make some people perceive the threat as less and therefore they may not see the point of infection control measures. Therefore, it calls for solidarity between generations:
– We have pointed this out all the time: it is especially the young who must take measures to protect the elderly. The burden of action affects the young, the burden of disease affects the elderly. That is why solidarity between generations is required, concludes Aavitsland.
