[ad_1]
Sweden and Norway have taken very different measures against the corona pandemic, but the results have been more similar than one might think, writes the Swede Aftonbladet.
And it is the Norwegian investigation on which the newspaper bases its article.
Researchers from, among others, the Oslo University Hospital and the University of Oslo have published a study with the following conclusion:
“Much of the aforementioned large difference between Norway and Sweden in the first phase of the pandemic is not found when we compare all causes of death over a five-year period. It is questionable whether large benefits can be expected from the strict measures Norway compared to less severe in Sweden during the pandemic. “
Critical
– For those affected it is always tragic, but for the correct assessment of the measures it is necessary to put things in perspective. We do what we do in Norway, but it comes at a cost. We must dare to see what the real picture of the threat is, says Michael Bretthauer, a researcher at Oslo University Hospital and professor of medicine at the University of Oslo.
Bretthauer is one of the researchers behind the Norwegian study.
While Norway introduced the strictest measures since World War II to stop the spread of the infection, measures in Sweden have most often been limited to general advice on hand hygiene and distance, the researchers note.
SCIENTIFIC: Professor Michael Bretthauer of the University of Oslo. Photo: Niklas R. Lello / UiO
see more
They believe that the Norwegian measures have significant negative impacts on the economy, employment, society and the individual.
The researchers also note that there is concern that people with other illnesses may not have seen a doctor or hospital on time, tens of thousands of medical appointments, operations and other treatments canceled.
The research article has been submitted to a major medical journal, but the report, which the researchers have now published, is a supposed preliminary impression that has not yet been peer-reviewed.
Difficult calculation
In Norway, around 300 people have died from COVID-19 so far during the pandemic, in Sweden more than 6,000.
Since Sweden has twice the population, there are around 10 times more Swedes killed than Norwegians as a result of the coronavirus disease.
But the calculation is not that simple, according to the researchers.
In the study, they compared total mortality in Sweden and Norway over the past five years.
To understand the effects of the pandemic in the two countries, with such different measures against the pandemic, the researchers calculated mortality in each week between July 2015 and July 2020.
They compared the pandemic period of March 2020 with the corresponding weeks in the previous four years, 2015-2019.
In Norway, researchers found that mortality was somewhat lower during the pandemic compared to previous years.
The researchers believe that the increase in total mortality during the pandemic in Sweden is not insignificant due to the fact that the country experienced a lower than usual mortality in the year before the pandemic. Why this is so, they do not know, but it may be related to a mild flu season in Sweden in 2018/2019.
Support Tegnell
Swedish state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell has pointed to the same explanation for the high death rates.
– Yes, based on our findings, it may appear that Sweden has done better than we assume so far. Sweden’s strategy has not led to a large increase in total mortality in the population, says Michael Bretthauer.
NORWEGIAN SUPPORT: Norwegian researchers agree with Swedish state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell that much of the excess mortality from covid-19 in Sweden can be explained by an unusually low mortality last year. Photo: AFP / NTB
see more
In sheer numbers, researchers have found that 3,796 more people died in Sweden at the end of July in the 2019/2020 pandemic year compared to the 2015-2019 average.
Last year, 2,756 fewer people died in Sweden compared to the 2015-2019 average.
Furthermore, the researchers found that mortality during the pandemic in Sweden has not increased compared to the years 2015/16, 2016/17 and 2017/18.
Mortality change
Researchers can also see that mortality in Sweden is lower than expected after the first wave of the pandemic in spring 2020.
– Furthermore, the figures show that this change in mortality in Sweden has only occurred among those over 70 years of age, especially among those over 80 years of age. For people under the age of 70, the overall death rate has been lower during the pandemic, also in Sweden, says Bretthauer.
To Aftonbladet he says the following:
– In fact, last year was an exceptional year in Sweden, with unusually low mortality. Many of those who would have died last year received one more year. When a new illness came, it took many who were already working overtime, so to speak.
For Dagbladet, the professor of medicine makes it clear that covid-19 is serious and can have a tragic outcome for those affected.
The real difference
The low death rates in Sweden last year also do not explain the overall difference in covid-19 mortality between Norway and Sweden.
– However, the difference in mortality is half what most people think. Actually, we can say that 2,500 more people have died in Sweden than in Norway in the early part of the pandemic, says Bretthauer.
Jonas Björk, professor of epidemiology at Lund University, is critical of the hypothesis that the low death from influenza in Sweden before the pandemic may explain the higher mortality from covid-19.
– We looked at this more closely in an ongoing study from different regions of Europe. So we don’t see a clear connection between how high the death rate was at the beginning of the year and how hard the pandemic hit. If there is such an effect from the previous flu, it is probably extremely weak, Jonas Björk tells Aftonbladet.
