Coronavirus, covid-19 | Johnson in trouble:

New forecasts and calculations show that the second corona wave to hit the UK will soon be more deadly than the first corona wave to hit the country.

The British government’s expert council, SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies) estimates that the next peak in the number of deaths per corona will be lower than during the first wave of April.

On the other hand, the expert council estimates that the spike will last significantly longer with a significantly higher number of deaths. They anticipate that the top remains uniform for several weeks or even several months.

Also read: This is how the new crown turns every day

The forecast, which has been prepared by SAGE, has led to intense pressure on Prime Minister Boris Johnson to introduce even more infection control measures.

– It’s getting worse this time. More deaths, says a well-placed source at The Telegraph.

– This is the forecast that has been presented to the Prime Minister, and he is now exposed to strong pressure to close again, says the source.

SAGE has also recommended that all of England go below infection control level 3, which is basically a lockdown.

Controversial crown measures

Earlier this fall, Prime Minister Johnson launched a new action plan to control coronary heart disease. Johnson introduced three levels of infection with infection control measures tailored for infected cities and regions.

– It is a progressive stop that will try to prevent the increase in infections in flowering areas. These three levels should be activated as the pressure of the infection increases. You can see that they have already introduced strict closures in some areas, UK expert and lead professor at Agder University Jan Erik Mustad tells Nettavisen.

Almost eight million Britons now live below infection level 3, which is a “very high risk” of infection.

– In Manchester, for example, there is a dispute between the mayor and the government about when these three levels should be activated. The purpose of this three-way system is to close regionally, says Mustad.

– It went completely wrong

At the time of this writing, Covid-19 has killed more than 45,000 people in the UK. Recently, 367 new corona deaths were recorded in one day in the UK. This is the highest number of days since last spring.

– It has gone completely wrong in the UK. There is a fear that the second wave will be worse than the first. The first wave was disappointing for the UK, mainly because it closed too late. It appears Boris Johnson will make up for this by closing as soon as possible, says Mustad.

– Tried a different tactic with this three-way system, but then it too went wrong. It closed too late this winter and opened too early this summer. The handling does not specifically testify to the actions of the statesman. He’s getting pressure from all sides, says Mustad.

He fears 500 deaths a day

Health authorities believe that the number of daily deaths per corona will rise to 500 in a few weeks.

– We continue to see the trend of increasing deaths, and this is likely to last for a while. Every day we experience more people testing positive and hospital admissions increasing, England Public Health Medical Director Yvonne Doyle tells The Telegraph.

In various parts of the country, hospitals have had to cancel treatments that are not related to covid-19, the newspaper writes. It also happened during the first wave of infection this spring.

Leeds General Infirmary and St James’s Hospitals have closed their operations due to reduced capacity.

Also read: Germany sets a new infection record: enters partial closure

One hospital saw a 78 percent increase in hospital admissions last week, while other hospitals doubled in a week.

The government’s expert council fears that the daily death toll could be in the hundreds for at least three months, even with current infection control measures.

Pressed from all sides

The British government is under heavy pressure from its own fellow party members. Several conservative politicians believe that Prime Minister Johnson should abolish the three-way system that was recently introduced, and rather prioritize the economy.

But Johnson is currently refusing to waive infection control measures, nor does he rule out that stricter measures could be introduced.

– Johnson is in trouble internally at parity by his own management and by the statements and management of ministers, and of course the pressure of public opinion that according to opinion polls now embraces the Labor Party and the leader Keir Starmer. Starmer appears to be more of a statesman than Boris Johnson, says Mustad.

Johnson’s dilemma

The Telegraph writes that the growing concern of the SAGE expert council may explain why the Prime Minister is so determined to stick with current infection control measures, even though it is so controversial. The newspaper also writes that SAGE’s forecast sheds light on the reluctance of other members of the government to discuss an exit plan for the current 3-way system.

A government source sums up Politico Johnson’s dilemma as follows:

– You’re sitting in a meeting where researchers estimate a huge increase in the number of infections and deaths. He then goes on to a meeting with the Finance Ministry saying that a new shutdown will cause many people to lose their jobs and many companies will have to close. And then you have a meeting with the whip that says that half of your party is against the measures that you already have.

Also read: Sweden squeezes into a new region after increased infection: – A serious situation

– Simply catastrophic

– Will there be a new nationwide lockdown in the UK, Mustad?

– This is what the government fears, because a new complete blockade will have a severe impact on British society economically, socially and politically. It should not be ignored that this is a kind of anticipation of a new national blockade if this three-way system fails to overcome the increase in infection and the number of deaths. The UK is back to May level for the number of infections and deaths. It’s just catastrophic, he says.

Professor Wendy Barclay of Imperial College London, who is a member of the SAGE expert council, says the current measures do not appear to have any significant effect on the spread of the virus in society.

“The extensive decline we had in March was enough to turn the tide and get the virus back under control,” he told Times Radio.

– So far, it appears that none of the other restrictions or measures that we have seen have done so, he says.

Closure on the way to Europe?

The World Health Organization (WHO) announced on Tuesday that the number of daily deaths from corona in Europe has increased by 40 percent in the last week. The largest increase appears to have affected countries such as Russia, France, Spain, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands.

More and more countries in Europe are preparing to introduce stricter infection control measures. The Norwegian authorities introduced new measures and recommendations earlier this week. Germany is considering closing bars and restaurants. France is considering a national curfew on weekends. President Emmanuel Macron will speak to the people on Wednesday night. Sweden has also introduced new restrictions due to record high infection rates.