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Over the next five years, China will reduce its carbon intensity by 18 percent.
This was announced by Prime Minister Li Keqiang when China’s 14th Five-Year Plan was presented during the People’s Congress of the Communist Party in Beijing.
Unlike other countries, China does not announce direct cuts in CO emissions. Instead, they measure carbon emissions relative to the country’s gross domestic product, also called carbon intensity.
The goal of an 18 percent cut is the same for the previous five-year plan.
Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) and Prime Minister Li Keqiang during the ongoing People’s Congress.
Photo: NOEL CELIS / AFP
Carbon neutral by 2060
It attracted a lot of attention last year when President Xi Jinping declared in September that China will be climate neutral by 2060.
The country gets about 60 percent of its electricity from coal and accounts for half of the world’s coal energy.
While the rest of the world reduced its use of coal in 2020, China increased its use. According to Bloomberg, Chinese coal producers said they will increase production by 2025.
China accounts for almost 28 percent of the world’s CO emissions.
That’s almost double the number two on the list, the US This applies to total emissions.
Measured by per capita emissions, Americans (and Norwegians) emit much more CO₂ than Chinese.
After Xi’s announcement last year, there was tension over whether China would now toughen up even more.
May be sufficient for the 2030 goals
The five-year plan contains three key objectives when it comes to climate:
- Reduce carbon intensity by 18 percent
- Increase the share of energy from non-fossil sources to 20 percent by 2025, from the current 15.9 percent.
- Increase nuclear power production to 70 gigawatts, from just 50 gigawatts today.
If China meets the new targets, it may be enough for the country to meet its obligations under the Paris Agreement. This is because the country has reported few cuts so far.
For the world to limit global warming to two degrees, it is necessary for China to reduce more than the country has promised so far.
“As usual”
– We have walked away from the time when the United States and China established themselves with each other, and then we can come out with goals that the rest of the world joined, says senior researcher Knut H. Alfsen at Cicero
Photo: Private
Cicero’s principal investigator Knut H. Alfsen has been China’s advisor on climate issues for many years.
– In a way, the decision is disappointing because “everything remains the same” in China. In light of the statement on carbon neutrality, one might expect that they have fine-tuned their targets, Alsen told NRK.
However, Alfsen believes that China’s goals are more ambitious than many see. The 18 percent reduction means that by 2025 China will have a renewable share of energy production that corresponds to all of the US energy demand today.
– Actually, it’s a very hairy target, he says.
I think there may be more
The most important climatic event of this year is the summit in Glasgow in November. There, countries will report new targets for cuts in CO emissions.
Alsen says China may wait to present further cuts to the summit.
– It may be that China takes any adjustment as a bargaining chip to the top and does not play that card beforehand, he says.
He also notes that there is great uncertainty about the future at the moment, with the pandemic and the deterioration of the relationship between China and the United States.
– The relationship with the United States is extremely confusing, to say the least. This makes it risky for China to toughen its climate targets right now, says Alfsen.
