“Brexit” with crown cough

After Eight months of negotiations between the EU and the UK on the future relationship between them, when the one-year “transition period” for New Years ends, the eighth round of negotiations begin in London on Monday. It will be the penultimate, as planned. The last one will start in Brussels on October 2. But what has gone according to plan so far?

The first part of “Rope on” Brexit “,” Divorce “, was full of surprises, tragicomic, messy and intricate. The second part,” The future “, carries the same message so far. Should the British in less than four months stumbling across the wide world without a deal with their closest friends in Europe or should they swallow a deal with strong disgust?

Works the way he kicks the hen, Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, said after the previous round: “At the stage we are in now, it seems unlikely that an agreement will be reached. It often seems that we are going backwards and not forwards. “His British counterpart, David Frost, was a bit more optimistic:” There has been little progress. “The last deadline to have a deal ready is the end of October. 27 other EU countries and the European Parliament may have time to approve a deal before the new year, otherwise it will be a pure gap, the so-called “hard Brexit”.

“There is no progress in the negotiations due to Britain’s unjustifiable and frankly unrealistic stance,” French Foreign Minister Yves Le Drian said recently in a speech to the country’s ambassadors to Europe.

Hard It was the negotiations before, and then the corona epidemic hit. Both Barnier and Frost contracted the virus in their bodies and had to be quarantined. The negotiations were to take place in part via videotelephony. Several urged British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to ask the EU for an extended ‘transition period’ due to the health crisis, but Boris insisted: ‘Let’s end’ Brexit ‘! On top of this, the Prime Minister was on the verge of being swept away by the crown. Now there are rumors that it has had serious repercussions, with some wondering if someone else will eventually have to take over. His handling of the epidemic in the archipelago has been quite complicated, with one twist after another. .

The EU has He has always insisted that if the British want to access the large EU single market, then Britain must accept the rules that apply to competition, state aid, the environment and social rights. The EU will not accept unfair competition from a “British tax haven” in its common market. Frost demands “British sovereignty over our borders, waters and laws.” Access to British waters for EU fishermen, especially the French, is a difficult point. The EU will have clarified these main issues first. Frost believes that therefore the EU makes it “unnecessarily difficult to move forward” with less difficult points. Is it a bet to see if the other party gives up at the last minute? The no-deal price will be high for both, but clearly the highest for the British.

Durable solutions have not yet been found for the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, the EU’s new external border. In Northern Ireland, the Republicans, who want to rejoin Ireland, won more seats in the last Parliament in London than the Unionists, who want to continue in Britain. And in Scotland, Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon is preparing a plan for a new referendum on independence, which will be ready in May next year. Scots will not be part of the cargo outside the EU.

What should be a comprehensive and comprehensive agreement, according to Boris and his team, may be, at best, a minimal agreement. What was supposed to be “one of the easiest deals to negotiate in history” has proven to be one of the most difficult.

In the middle Johnson has appointed Frost as the new national security adviser; it is scheduled to join in September. In the EU, it was thought that he was fed up with the negotiations and refers to Barnier, who said no to join the EU Commission to complete the negotiations with the British. In addition, it has appointed the former Australian short-term Prime Minister Tony Abbott as an advisor in future trade agreement negotiations with countries outside the EU, which has caused a stir in both countries.

So nothing is new under the fog over the legendary canal.

Boris Johnson has been released from the hospital

In the second trimester this year, the British economy fell 20.4%, the biggest drop of all rich countries. It is worse than in Spain (18.5%), France and Italy, three countries where the dramatic drop in tourist revenues explains a large part of the recession, while tourism plays a minor role in the British economy. In the first quarter, before the ravages of the virus had particular consequences for the economy, the British economy fell 2.2 percent. This may indicate that the economic consequences of the epidemic and all the uncertainty surrounding the separation from the EU are mutually reinforcing.

The economic losses as a result of “Brexit” can be explained as a result of the epidemic. But then Boris Johnson is in danger of sweeping the yard in headwinds and getting all the dust into the wood. He is as responsible for the political mismanagement of the epidemic as he is for the consequences of “Brexit,” with or without a deal.