Anyway, Hard Brexit – VG

Yes, it is easier to get vaccinated against a new virus that has caused a global pandemic, than a regulatory agreement between two civilized unions.

It seems dark for both parties. And it will get dark.

After a symbolic fish meal at the EU headquarters on Wednesday evening, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Prime Minister Boris Johnson agreed to only this: a new deadline for negotiations.

Now is the weekend. Sunday, December 13. Winter solstice, according to the Roman calendar; the longest night of the year. But it is also the day when everything changes and we move towards brighter times. A signal?

What was really expressed about the scallops in Brussels, only the few who ate them know. Only the neediest are known. The rest is pending interpretation.

This is how the summit at the heart of the EU compromise machine is reminiscent of the Catholic Church, the British Royal Family or Cosa nostra, the Sicilian Mafia. No comparison to the contrary. Consensus-oriented organizations that rarely take radical steps here or there. To understand what is happening, you have to read the gestures, understand the facade and listen to who says what. And when.

According to the Kremlinology in Brussels, it is worrying that von der Leyen and Johnson did not make a joint statement after the talks, but instead spoke separately. Although they expressed mutual respect and took kind reservations about the way forward, this is interpreted as the signs of the diplomacy of a disagreement that is so deep that it is difficult to be next to each other and smile warmly.

The hardest thing to swallow for Boris is not the fish, but the requirement that the British must follow the EU’s rules of the game for continuous, frictionless access to its largest market.

To benefit from this tax advantage, the EU wants all players to compete on equal terms. This means the same level of framework conditions, terms and standards throughout the EU. However, Boris Johnson wants to reserve the right to determine these levels himself, including the use of subsidies, although it is a childish lesson for most conservative politicians that it distorts the competition.

On the other hand: when the main opponent of free trade in the world is a Republican president of the White House, it says something about the life and ideological doctrine of the right at the moment.

Even the menu is politically understood. Scallops are a lucrative export product for British fishermen. While scallops worth NOK 170 million are sold annually on the domestic market, the value of these exports to France alone exceeds NOK 600 million. In total, the British sell seafood to the EU for approx. 13 billion kr. one year. In that sense, a reminder of what Britain will miss if there is no deal.

Furthermore, the letter is interpreted as a reference to the 2018 conflict when British fishermen with the consent of the EU were able to fish for scallops in French waters, during a period of the year when French professionals had to comply with national conservation regulations and they had a catch ban.

Boris Johnson told the BBC on Thursday that there was a high probability that Britain would leave the EU without a deal. He has said that before, and he must. The non-compliance of the EU is its entire power base. But the negotiations don’t end until they are over.

Strictly speaking, Sunday’s deadline is no more final than what Brexit Minister Michael Gove believes that, in principle, the talks can continue until December 31. If the parties have something to discuss.

Boris Johnson would hardly have traveled to Brussels if there was nothing to achieve. Some say that all he wanted was to show that he tried to the end; but no, these yours from the EU shouldn’t be kidding. They did not want to recognize the sovereignty of Great Britain and, after all, that is what Brexit was all about. So then.

Others think this is “typically Boris”; that fits into their decision-rejection modus operandi. On the one hand, he has promised a Brexit with no future ties to the EU, and he will get into trouble with the hard core of the outer Eurosceptic wing of the Conservative party if the gap is not clear enough. These hardliners have warned of mistrust of the Prime Minister if he does not comply with this.

With a good majority in the lower house, Boris Johnson does not need a deal to govern. But you will probably prefer one. It will make it easier for you to run the country and be able to focus on other things.

Without a deal, he will have to spend time and effort restoring infrastructure that expires on January 1, but is taken for granted by the British after 47 years in the EU. As much as Boris Johnson has coped with the crown crisis, he knows what it could cost him politically.

Internationally, it also puts Britain in a bad position by appearing as an unreliable alliance partner. “Who will make an appointment with us after this?” asks the commentator for the leading conservative newspaper The Times. Others worry that Boris Johnson will become Britain’s most isolated prime minister in peacetime.

That Boris, first and foremost, does what Boris serves, and likes to put his own interests before the country, is not a statement from the British left. It comes from the inner cynics of the Conservative Party. In this case, the interests may coincide. Because Boris Johnson will be, first and foremost, Prime Minister and people will like him.

It will not be if you dispose of your estate for Scottish nationalists to obtain full compensation for secession. Without any deal, Scotland, loyal to the EU, will embark on a process of independence that London has not seen since the continentally oriented King James V went to war against England.

With a tough border between the province of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, there may also be progress in the reunification process on the Irish island.

But the hardest thing is to stay in the storm when economic realities shift to what may be left of former Britain. Both the Central Bank of England, the UK Treasury and the London School of Economics have advanced clear models showing recession, falling GDP, rising food prices and more expensive housing and cars.

All the economic misery and logistical collapse that will ensue in the archipelago in the coming years, regardless of whether it has anything to do with the case or not, will be attributed to Brexit. Without a deal, that legacy will rub off on Boris. He is terrified.

However, an economic recession will hit even by deal, according to the same calculations. Anyway, a hard Brexit is looming. Valuable sovereignty also comes at a price.

Finally, Boris Johnson must consider what he fears the most:

The scenario in which militant instigators on the party’s outer wing generate mistrust or anger from the people when Britain disintegrates and the economy contracts.

Listen to the latest episode of the Giæver og gjengen podcast here, on Brexit and Oslo closed by the crown: