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In November, new acts of war broke out in Western Sahara. With that, one of the world’s forgotten conflicts has flared up again.
In 1991, the UN negotiated a ceasefire agreement between Morocco and the Polisario liberation movement in occupied Western Sahara. Since then, the dispute over the area of the former colony has been furious. A frozen and forgotten conflict. The parties never agreed, but they have managed to keep the peace for almost three decades.
On Friday, November 13, peace ended when Morocco launched a military operation in Western Sahara. The liberation movement now believes that the ceasefire has been broken. The fact is cause for great concern, says a spokesman for the UN secretary general.
What triggered the outbreak?
The backdrop to the military operation began on October 21. A group of protesters from the local Sahrawi population are said to have prevented the trucks from passing through the Guerguerat border area, which connects Western Sahara and Mauritius. Morocco responded with threats to remove the protesters by force.
And that is exactly what happened on Friday, November 13. The Moroccan soldiers entered Guerguerat, an area that, according to the 1991 agreement, will function as a buffer zone and is patrolled by UN soldiers. Morocco’s version is that they will reopen the free flow of commercial and passenger traffic between Western Sahara and Mauritania.
The Polisario, for its part, believes that Morocco broke the ceasefire by entering the buffer zone. On November 19, they claimed to have launched a major attack on the Moroccan border wall through Western Sahara. With that, one of the world’s forgotten conflicts has reappeared on the agenda.
But what is the conflict really about?
On November 13, Moroccan soldiers entered the Guerguerat border area, in the lower left corner of the map. The red line illustrates the border wall from Morocco through Western Sahara. Photo: UN Connection.
A dispute over an occupied land
The conflict over Western Sahara dates back to the 1970s, when the area was a Spanish colony. After Spain withdrew from what is described as Africa’s last colony in 1975, Morocco occupied two-thirds of the territory. They decided to stay and since then hundreds of thousands of Moroccans have settled in Western Sahara.
The Moroccan narrative has always been that the area was stolen from them by Spain. In this they get little support. The International Court of Justice in The Hague rejected the claim as early as 1975.
On the other side of the conflict is the Polisario liberation movement. They represent the Sahrawi, the indigenous people of Western Sahara. The movement controls the eastern part of Western Sahara, which has been called the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR).
Soldiers from the Polisario liberation movement hold a military parade in the village of Tifariti in Western Sahara in 2011. The movement now claims that Morocco has broken the 1991 ceasefire. Photo: Arturo Rodríguez, AP / NTB
2. The referendum that never happened
Both Morocco and the Polisario liberation movement claim to have the right to all of Western Sahara. And here lies the core of the conflict: part of the 1991 ceasefire agreement was that a referendum should be held on whether the country should become independent or become part of Morocco.
But the referendum was never held. There is a particular reason for this, according to Morten Bøås, a senior fellow at the Norwegian Institute for Foreign Policy (Nupi).
– The big question has always been who should vote. The Polisario believes that only the indigenous population should be able to vote. Morocco, on the other hand, requires that all people living in Western Sahara have the right to vote. That includes Moroccan settlers, he says.
Brahim Ghali is the president of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR). He is also the general secretary of the Polisario liberation organization, which wants to expel Morocco from Western Sahara. Photo: Ramzi Boudina, Reuters / NTB
Neither party has been allowed to move. Until the question of voting rights is decided, it is impossible to hold a referendum. For Morocco, it’s perfectly fine not to, according to Bøås.
– For them, it is not just about income from the natural resources of Western Sahara and free connection lines with neighboring countries. Morocco cannot and will not accept people of Moroccan descent who will leave Western Sahara if the area achieves independence, says the Nupi researcher.
To maintain control in central areas, Morocco has erected a 2,000-kilometer-long sand wall that divides Western Sahara in two.
A wall of sand separates the area controlled by Morocco from the area where the Polisario rules. Morocco is also said to have installed barbed wire and laid landmines along the wall. Photo: François Mori, AP / NTB
A global conflict
The dispute over Western Sahara is not just a conflict between Morocco and the Polisario. Algeria has also signed up. Around 173,600 refugees from Western Sahara live here, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Furthermore, the country is the most important supporter of the Polisario. It is hardly a coincidence.
– The relationship between Algeria and Morocco is already complicated. Algeria continues to host these refugees, because they know it irritates Morocco to some extent, says Bøås.
Women from the Saharawi population demonstrate during a UN visit to a refugee camp in Algeria. The country hosts most of the refugees from Western Sahara. Photo: Zohra Bensenmra, Reuters / NTB
The conflict also extends beyond the borders of North Africa. Morocco has its closest ally in France, which protects Morocco in the UN Security Council and is also Morocco’s entry into the EU.
– The great powers also have security interests in the stability of the region. the it fears, among other things, that an independent state of Western Sahara is vulnerable and unstable. It can provide fertile ground for radicalism, says Bøås.
Therefore, he believes that the international appetite for a solution is small. Furthermore, when it comes to two blocked positions like Morocco and Western Sahara, what the UN can do is limited.
– The last general secretaries have tried to keep the conflict calm to avoid an explosion on guard. The subtext is that the referendum is postponed, he says.
Do we see the start of a new war?
With the exception of Algeria, the liberation struggle in Western Sahara has few major supporters. Norway recognizes neither Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara nor the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR). In 2019, Foreign Minister Ine Eriksen Søreide (H) stated that “Norway supports the UN’s work for a political solution to the conflict in Western Sahara.” However, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs advises against Norwegian companies conducting business in the occupied territories.
The latest provocations by the Polisario are likely a cry to put the forgotten conflict on the international agenda, Bøås believes. However, the other party seems to be happy with the status quo.
– If there is a more military provocation by the Polisario, it is conceivable that Morocco will launch a large military project in Western Sahara. But, in principle, Morocco has no incentive to do anything, he says.
Bøås also sees no reason why the international response should change immediately.
– Morocco is very useful for both Europe and France. As long as there isn’t much fuss, you don’t have to do much about the refugee problem in Western Sahara. There will most likely be some noise now before it calms down again, he says.
