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An influential model of the coronavirus, to which the White House has often referred, now predicts that 134,000 people will lose lives of covid-19 in the United States by August 1, writes CNN.
That is a duplication of your previous estimate. As of Monday morning, the model, from the University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Assessment (IHME), estimated that 72,433 people would lose their lives.
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Sharp increase
Also, a forecast that, according to the New York Times, came from the Trump administration, says that more people will die daily in the future.
According to estimates, according to models developed and presented by the disaster management agency of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), by the end of May there will be 200,000 new coronary cases per day.
This is a sharp increase from today, with around 25,000 new coronary cases daily in the United States.
On June 1, about 3,000 will die per day, if the forecasts are met, which is close to doubling today’s numbers.
The reason the two models now predict a dramatic increase in the number of deaths is related to a more relaxed relationship with social distancing as more states in the US. USA Now they open more and more after being closed, and more mobility between the states of the EE. USA
This applies, among other things, to the states of Florida, Colorado, Indiana, Nebraska and South Carolina, which have loosened restrictions to get the economy back on track.
Reject report
IHME director at the University of Washington Christopher Murray says there are other things that are increasing the death toll as well. Among other things, states add estimated corona deaths to statistics and the growing number of cases in some factories where meat is packed.
“The challenge for all of us is figuring out how to smooth the social distance at a rate that protects us from huge increases or a full bloom of the virus,” Murray told CNN.
It was the New York Times who first presented what the White House’s internal forecasts for coronavirus should be, demonstrating that the number of deaths each day will increase dramatically.
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But Judd Deere, a White House spokesperson, denies that the forecasts come from the White House.
“This is not a White House document, nor has it been presented to the working group or reviewed by various agencies. These data do not reflect any of the models of the corona virus working group, nor the data that the working group has analyzed, ”writes Deere on Twitter.
This is not a White House document, nor has it been submitted to the task force or undergone an inter-agency background investigation. These data do not reflect any of the models made by the Coronavirus Working Group or the data that the Working Group has analyzed. # COVID19 https://t.co/mTK0724Mzp
– Judd Deere (@ JuddPDeere45) May 4, 2020
The Center for Disease Control (CDC), the United States’ infection control authorities, will not recognize the report, despite its logo depicted in the report cited by The New York Times.
– Unfinished forecasts
Justin Lessler, professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, who created the model in question, says the numbers are incomplete forecasts, which were presented to the CDC as something he was working on.
The job contained a wide range of possibilities and the modeling was not complete, he says.
– Lessler did not participate in the presentation and display of this document, Lessler told the Washington Post, adding that the data was presented to FEMA personnel “for information.”
– It was not intended at all as a forecast, he says.
Still, he says that while the final forecasts may land in numbers other than the CDC documents, the documents show precisely how the coronavirus can spiral out of control.
According to Lessler, 100,000 new cases every day at the end of the month are not unrealistic. Much depends on the political decisions that are made today.
– There are reopening scenarios where this can get out of control very quickly, says the teacher.
The United States is the country in the world with the most confirmed deaths associated with the coronavirus. More than 69,000 of the nearly 1.2 million people who have had coronary heart disease have died.
Do you want to argue?
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