– The demand is extremely extreme – E24

– There are extreme differences. During Christmas in space this year, there were 176 homes for sale, while there were 787 on the market during Christmas in space last year, Baard Schumann, CEO of Nordr (formerly Veidekke Eiendom), tells E24.

The figures were taken by the CEO of Finn.no’s home sales ads. The figures show that there is only a fifth of the homes available now than at the same time last year.

– It has never been as low as this year. This means that there will be a strong price increase in January, I think we will see a strong 3-4 percent increase in price growth in the first month of the year only, says Schumann.

Point out the basic economics of explaining the drought.

– The supply side is weak and the demand quite extreme.

– There are few housing projects for sale and there will not be much news in the future. Very few houses are regulated in Oslo, says Schumann.

At the same time that he believes that the municipalities neighboring Oslo have been on the ball and constantly regulating new projects, Schumann thinks that the municipality of Oslo itself has failed.

– Oslo has not done its job in recent years. Since it is those who already live in the neighborhood who vote, there are no politicians who want to build houses. So regulation takes a long time, says Schumann.

14% home price growth

Due to low supply caused by little regulation and high demand due to low interest rates, the CEO predicts record growth in house prices.

– I think house prices will grow 14 percent in Oslo in 2021. Simply because demand is significantly higher than supply.

Schumann points to two solutions if inflation is to be curbed.

– We must ensure that we increase the pace of regulation and build more houses. And then he must be allowed to build the houses that are really needed. Half of those who live in Oslo live alone, but the apartments being built are not suited to that, says Schumann.

– Is it a problem that real estate speculators buy the offer only to rent?

– No. It is good that people invest in housing, and there are many who want to rent.

– The rhythm has changed

Eika’s chief economist Jan Ludvig Andreassen also believes there will be a price jump in January.

– It’s Christmas in space and it’s never been a good idea to sell a house in December. So the strongest month of the year is typically January, where prices typically rise 2 to 3 percent, Andreassen says.

At the same time, he thinks it is special with so few houses on the market.

– To the extent that it says anything, it is that the number of unwanted homes is record. The market has managed to clear what is usually not sold.

Andreassen thinks it will be difficult to see if this is permanent. We may have to wait until Easter with that.

The pace in the housing market has traditionally been that there are few homes on the market in January and February.

Then prices go up to meet demand and more houses come on the market, preferably after Easter. Good properties are then sold before the summer, so again there are few homes left on the market.

Then the cycle repeats in the fall.

This year, however, there are many factors that have thrown the cycle out of phase.

– The pace has changed this year. Many people are afraid of missing a passing train, at the same time that there are perpetual zero interest rate prospects and people wonder what to do with their money. Then there are some who may want to avoid property taxes by purchasing a property. Others may think that we will get a new red-green government next year that introduces inheritance tax, so it may be okay to transfer values ​​before then, Andreassen says.

Speculative foam provides a dangerous phase for the market

The chief economist thinks we have to wait until Easter before seeing if things get back to normal.

– We have to wait to see if the volume arrives at Easter. Have many been waiting to post things or are there really abnormally few sellers this time? We’ll see if the speculative foam continues, Andreassen says.

Eika’s own economist does not believe that there will be speculative foam next year. He predicts a house price increase of eight percent in Oslo, somewhat lower than some others, but still a historically high figure.

– I emphasize a salary increase that is low. This may mean that the market does not have similar movements in rents to movements in prices, so it becomes more and more expensive to own rather than rent. It will be a worse store to manage rents when house prices go up while rents are idle, Andreassen says.

You think this could be dangerous for the housing market.

– It will be the same situation as the oil tankers. In shipping, one does not worry about rates, but about large fluctuations in ship values, and then there are some similarities here. It will be a worse business to own it, but the increase in value saves it and expects continued price growth, it is a dangerous phase for the market.