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Four deaths have been identified out of a thousand cases. The British advisory group also says that the mutation may have a greater tendency to infect children.
The new coronary variant discovered in the UK is probably more contagious than other variants of the virus. Therefore, many European countries have introduced entry bans from the UK to prevent the spread of the virus mutation to their own country.
A British advisory body on Friday reviewed the information and data currently available on the new mutation of the virus that is plaguing London.
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The new mutated variant of the sars-cov-2 coronavirus has been named “VUI-202012/01”.
The New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG) is subordinate to the UK Department of Health. The agency performs risk analysis and advises health authorities and the UK Government on the coronary pandemic.
NERVTAG has posted a summary of their meeting on Friday.
It is estimated, among other things, that the virus mutation is 71% more contagious than other variants, and that the so-called R number could have an increase of between 0.39 and 0.93.
“In summary, NERVTAG is moderately confident that VUI-202012/01 demonstrates a significant increase in transferability compared to other variants,” writes NERVTAG in the meeting summary document.
On Monday, NERVTAG changed the wording a bit, telling reporters they were “very confident” that the mutated variant is more contagious than other variants, according to Politico.
Four deaths
NERVTAG also presents data showing that the new mutation of the virus may have already claimed its first human lives. But NERVTAG emphasizes that “at present the data is not sufficient to be able to draw conclusions”.
“Disease severity: 4 deaths have been identified in about 1000 cases, but more work is needed to compare this mortality with comparable data sets (organized data collection, editor’s note),” the paper reads.
The National Institute of Public Health does not currently believe that the new virus mutation is more dangerous than other variants of the sars-cov-2 coronavirus.
– We do not believe that it causes a more serious disease because in the south-east of England a greater proportion of serious cases has not been seen in areas where the virus dominates, says Preben Aavitsland of the National Institute of Public Health (NIPH) to Nettavisen.
Also read: NIPH: Persistent danger that the epidemic will spiral out of control for the next six months
– To what extent is the UK mutated variant likely to reach Norway, Aavitsland?
– It is difficult to assess and largely depends on how widespread it is or will be in Europe. If it becomes widespread in Europe, it will probably be difficult to keep it away from Norway in the long run. The measures now involve buying time until we can assess what this variant really means, he tells Nettavisen.
The new variant has already been tested in several other European countries such as Denmark, the Netherlands and Italy. Avvitsland says it cannot be ruled out that the virus mutation is already in Norway.
– Yes, it can be, but if it had been generalized, we would have discovered it in our virus tracking, he says.
Higher infection rates
The R number, also called the infection number, is a measure of how many people an infected person transmits. In early December, FHI estimated that the R number in Norway was 0.8. As mentioned earlier in the article, NERVTAG estimates in their report that the infection rate from the new virus mutation could have an increase of between 0.39 and 0.93.
If the new mutation of the virus were to reach Norway, it could lead to even stronger measures to keep the R number below one.
– Infection control involves pushing R down below 1. We are now around 1. The variant probably has a higher R first. Therefore, measures must be correspondingly more effective or comprehensive to keep such a virus under control. If the variant were to finally dominate in Norway, we would have to further improve testing, infection tracking and contact reduction measures so that the epidemic does not break out, Avvitsland says.
Does the vaccine work against the mutation?
This Christmas, the first Pfizer coronary vaccines will be distributed in Norway to start vaccination. Moderna, which is another type of coronary vaccine, is awaiting urgent approval by the EU at the beginning of the new year.
– Can we risk that Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are not as effective against the new mutated UK variant, Aavitsland?
– It’s not nice. It is now being tested whether the blood of patients who have been vaccinated and therefore should be immune can neutralize the new variant and the original variant just as quickly, he says.
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– Such viruses will win the battle for survival.
The term virulence says something about the severity of disease caused by a virus. At the start of the pandemic, Britain’s top medical adviser, Professor Chris Whitty, stated that the coronavirus could, in theory, become more dangerous through mutations. But Whitty also noted that “the general trend is that if there is a pattern in which direction a virus will take over time, it is that it becomes less virulent as it adapts to a new host.”
– It is true that in biology it is estimated that in the long term most viruses can become more contagious, but less virulent, said Allan Randrup Thomsen, Professor of Experimental Virology at the Department of Immunology and Microbiology at the University of Copenhagen. Nettavisen in March.
– The principle is that a host who does not get sick from the virus and who continues, will be more contagious than someone who is at home and has gotten sick from the virus. And then there will be a gradual spread of the variant that does not spread the disease, Randrup Thomsen said at the time.
– Are dangerous virus mutations less adaptable than less dangerous virus mutations, Aavitsland?
– Most changes in the RNA of the virus cause changes that make the virus less adaptable. Such viruses become extinct. Some changes have no effect on or improve adaptability. Such viruses will win the battle for survival and eventually take over. It’s normal for viruses, including coronaviruses, to change over time, which is called antigenic drift, as the population becomes immune after infection or vaccination, he says.
– Changes in viruses can give them more, less or equal severity of the disease. There is no automatic link between infectivity and virus severity. There is currently no indication that the new variant produces a different disease, but the British are analyzing data now and more insights are expected later this week, Aavitsland says.
Facts about virus mutation in the UK
This is the virus mutation in the UK and the measures introduced in relation to it.
Facts about the new variant of the coronavirus:
* It is common for viruses to mutate, and therefore the discovery of a new variant is not unexpected.
* The new variant of the virus has 23 changes, which is considered a lot.
* According to UK authorities, the new variant of the virus is probably 70 percent more contagious and may lead to a rate of spread of R infection increasing by 0.4 or more.
* The mutation is believed to have appeared in London or Kent in September. The virus appears to compete with the old variant from which it came, and in December it has been dominant in London.
* Until now, there is no reason to believe that the mutated virus is more lethal.
* Outside the UK, the new virus has been found in Denmark, the Netherlands, Italy and Australia.
* The new variant of the virus has not been discovered so far in Norway, according to the National Institute of Public Health (NIPH).
These measures have been introduced in relation to the mutation of the virus:
* The UK introduces an even stricter fourth level of action in London and South East England. The rules take effect from Sunday morning.
* Residents in Level 4 areas must stay home, with very few exceptions. Shops, gyms, leisure facilities and other services that are deemed non-critical should be closed. People need to work from the home office if they can.
* People cannot travel in or out of category 4 areas, nor can they stay overnight away from home.
* The Scottish government decided on Saturday to introduce infection control measures at the highest level from 26 December. Here too the new virus has been discovered.
* The Dutch government has decided to stop all flights from the UK from Sunday until 1 January for now.
* Belgium has completely closed its borders for at least 24 hours.
* Italy reports that they are stopping all flights from the UK. Germany and France are considering entry bans.
* Norwegian health authorities are considering further tightening to prevent the new variant of the virus in the UK from spreading in Norway.
* The World Health Organization (WHO) is calling on European member states to intensify infection control measures due to the new variant of the virus.
Greater propensity to infect children?
Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London, who is part of the British advisory group NERVTAG, said on Monday that there are signs that the new variant infects more children.
– There are other epidemiologically interesting trends with the virus. It is an indication that it has a greater tendency to infect children. But we haven’t established any kind of cause, but we see it in the data, says Fergusen, according to Sky News.
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