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Most people thought next year’s election would be a heated showdown between Prime Minister Erna Solberg of Bergen and Labor leader Jonas Gahr Støre of Oslo. In other words, a replay of the 2017 elections.
It is as it should be. Right towards the Labor Party. Woman against man. Erna and Jonas are different in style and politics. But they complement each other. Both are competent to govern the country.
This fall, a young farmer from Hedmark joined the company.
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Sp leader Trygve Slagsvold Vedum has arrived like a rocket. His party is in line with the Conservatives and the Labor Party. Vedum can deny anything he wants. But as long as Sp is as big or bigger than the Conservatives and the Labor Party, in the eyes of the voters he will be a candidate for prime minister. NRK has already held the first prime ministerial duel between Erna and Trygve. There will be more.
Vedum is the complete opposite of Støre and Solberg. While it smells like Jonas and Erna’s aftershave and perfume, it smells like Trygve’s barn. Støre’s Oslo dialect and Solberg’s finely honed Bergen dialect tell it all about how different they are. Solberg and Støre are the natural candidates for prime minister of the big cities. Vedum is the candidate of the periphery and the peasants.
Støre and Solberg can speak above people’s heads. Vedum speaks to people.
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There is never any doubt about what you mean. For a politician, simple and understandable language is worth its weight in gold. Solberg and Støre have never emerged as great comedians. Vedum, on the other hand, conveys joy and good humor with his laughter and contagious stories. It is not difficult to understand that this man gets new voters for Sp.
In this week’s Opinion party barometer, he came close to the SP not becoming the largest party in the country. Vedum’s party rose 4.4 percentage points to 22.2 percent. Erna Solberg’s party dropped 1.7 percentage points to 22.9 percent. Støre’s Labor Party rose 1.4 percentage points to 21.8%. For the first time, we have a political landscape dominated by three almost equal parties.
Nine months before the parliamentary elections, it is completely open which party will be the largest. While Erna Solberg and Jonas Gahr Søre fight the wind, Trygve Slagsvold Vedum has the wind behind him. If there is no climate change, Sp can become the largest party after the elections. Vedum can then become prime minister of a government based on the Socialist / Labor Party. When Vedum first said that he was in favor of a bipartisan government of the Socialist People’s Party and the Labor Party, no one thought it could happen. SV had to join. It is not so obvious anymore. Polls show that the Social Democrats and the Labor Party now only need a few seats in the majority. If the Labor Party reduces some terms and the Social Democrats hold the ball until the elections, there will be a majority for the Vedum government.
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Erna Solberg’s party is likely to become the largest, but she is the worst of the three to become prime minister. KrF and Venstre must exceed the 4 percent threshold and Frp must be higher if the government wants to obtain a majority. Erna Solberg’s time as prime minister will likely be after the September elections next year. Yet eight years as Prime Minister is impressive considering the complex herd she has led over the years. His first period with Frp was the best. Expansion with KrF and Venstre in government and Frp out has not been good.
Støre’s main problem is that Trygve Slagsvold Vedum has stolen APS’s position as the most visible opposition party. APS’s strategy in the previous period of gaining influence through cooperation with the government, completely failed. The outcome of the 2017 elections showed that it was a policy that Labor did not like. During this period, former Labor voters have continued to flee to Sp. O have sat on the fence. Now it is easier to remove voters from the fence than to win back voters who have fled to another party. Herein lies the party’s opportunity to grow into the Storting elections.
Also read: “At the end of the crown year, not many people believe that the Solberg government will be re-elected”
Sp takes voters from all parties except Red. Paradoxically, this is a problem for the party. Sp’s progress is due both to Vedum’s popularity and because the party is against everything the government invents. In the electoral campaign, Sp cannot simply say what the party is against. You should also indicate what the party is for. So it may be that apostate FRP members have trouble understanding why they ended up in the same party as previous SV voters. Vedum’s project can go bust.
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