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BRUSSELS (Aftenposten): It is also the alternative that has cost the British prime ministers before him both power and glory. And eternal life in the dark.
Ursula von der Leyen welcomes Boris Johnson to a “dinner for two” in the working canteen of the EU headquarters. Photo: Aaron Chown, AP / NTB
At 11:30 p.m. everything was over. The most talked about three-course dinner in the Brexit negotiations. The dinner that was predicted to be the final collapse. Or the surprising breakthrough.
Now it ended as usual: with a new postponement. Brexit negotiators get a new extended mandate. The new deadline is Sunday.
In Brussels, there are no open restaurants, so dinner was served in the Berleymont building, the powerful but not glamorous EU headquarters.
But there was also no gala dinner to which the President of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, would have invited. This was the crisis dinner that could be the last meal before the end of the world. Which is now postponed until Sunday.
British trauma
The battle now raging in Brussels is beginning to look suspiciously like British trauma. It is about Britain’s place in Europe. And about the political defeat of the British prime ministers in Brussels and their final fall in London. Margaret Thatcher. John Major. David Cameron. Theresa May.
Is it also the fate of Boris Johnson? Or will he be the first British leader to defeat the EU?
These are the options Boris Johnson faces:
1. In seiersavtale à la Churchill
The chances of Britain striking a fabulous deal with the EU seem highly unlikely. But it was this impression that Boris Johnson created when in January this year he renegotiated the Brexit deal that Theresa May never managed to pass in the British Parliament.
When the agreement was in place, he characterized it as excellent and “ready to go.” It would be an easy match to get out of the EU. Great Britain was to regain its independence and sovereignty. That was in January.
The British and the EU are still negotiating. The chances of Boris Johnson returning to London as Churchill and showing the sign of victory seem unlikely.
2. A bad deal
The most likely result is a compromise, which is not unusual in international negotiations. But history shows that what the British are not fixing is having to make compromises with the EU.
A bad deal is worse than anything else. It was also Theresa May’s mantra. “No deal is better than a bad deal,” he said.
The British always feel that they are being manipulated by the EU. That they are seen as enemies and not as friends.
The British self-image, as a former powerful colonial power with world domination, does not impress anyone in the EU.
Also: a lukewarm engagement with the EU almost never survives at home.
- Theresa May is one example, but Cameron’s fate is what Boris Johnson fears the most. Let’s quickly recall David Cameron’s humiliation of engagement.
David Cameron thought that he could start the EU and achieve everything that Britain was pointing to. It went terribly wrong. Photo: Pascal Rossingnol, Reuters / NTB
- It was Cameron who in 2013 was convinced that a referendum on the EU would resolve once and for all the EU dispute in his own party.
- Before the referendum, he got tall and dark and went to Brussels to renegotiate Britain’s deal with the EU. It should limit immigration, social security tourism, and ensure that Britain would never be subject to deeper cooperation with the EU.
- In all respects he received a slight alms, but nothing to convince his people.
- At home in the UK, the deal was sacrificed. He woke up to cruel newspaper headlines.
- He lost the referendum, had to resign as prime minister, and no one has seen him since.
It is this fate that Boris Johnson fears more than anything else.
3. No agreement
This is the nightmare scenario for the EU, but it may be the best option for Boris Johnson.
In the UK, such a solution will only intensify the divisions that have torn the country apart after Brexit. It will accelerate Scottish secession and bring about Irish reunification again.
Many in Johnson’s own party will also stick their noses out, while the vast majority in the party and those who gave him the election victory will cheer him on.
- Because although many will perceive this option as a crazy bet on the future of the UK, this option will remain the easiest to sell for Boris Johnson.
- Because this is why he won the election: “A clean Brexit”, a pure gap. You will be able to tell the story of now giving the British what they promised and what they asked for: regain control of their own borders and laws, and become owners of their own home.
An advert
Yesterday morning, before leaving for Brussels, it was clearer than in a long time.
“The conditions that are now on the table, no British prime minister can accept,” he said.
– If the UK becomes the only country in the world that has no control over its own fishing rights and if the EU continues to insist that we must follow the laws adopted by the EU in the future, then there will be no deal.
He then repeated his confident analysis of how Britain will prosper outside the EU and that Britain will have the same free trade agreement as Australia and Canada.
The EU has always said no to that.
Happy brexmas or new postponement
What happens now?
On Thursday, the EU heads of state and government will meet for a physical summit in Brussels. The EU reconstruction package and the veto of Poland and Hungary are on the agenda.
But Brexit will probably not be forgotten. Now a new deadline is Sunday. But why should one believe in it?
Will there be a Brexit deal before Christmas rings in Downing Street? There is little indication of that now. Photo: Matt Dunham, AP / NTB
More and more people are talking about moving toward another postponement, which Boris Johnson categorically rejects. But if there’s one thing Boris Johnson has had a rough relationship with in recent years, it’s truth and temptations. Most have been broken.
