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Most countries have presented economic statistics for the third quarter in recent weeks. In general these have been better than feared. The current quarter is likely to be more severe than expected with a sharp increase in new cases of coronary heart disease.
In November, there were on average more than half a million new confirmed cases of infection daily around the world, more than double the number in the summer months, when there was an outbreak in the southern states of the United States.
Deaths are approaching 1.4 million and the number of confirmed infections will exceed 60 million during November with the current development.
– Difficult and uncertain ascent
The International Monetary Fund warns in a report released in connection with a summit in the G20 countries this weekend that “the world economy has lost momentum” due to the latest wave of corona infection in the United States and Europe.
He buys broken dollar bills, repairs them, and sells them at a profit In Zimbabwe, broken US dollar bills are being repaired for resale at a higher price. The country’s hyperinflation has meant that it is not trading in its own currency. 01:09 Published:
“The world economy is at a critical crossroads. The earth has begun to recover from the depths of the corona pandemic. The resurgence of new infections in many countries shows how difficult and uncertain this rebound will be,” writes the IMF chief. , Kristalina Georgieva, in a post at the G20 meeting, in which representatives of the 20 largest economies in the world participate.
He notes that there has been significant progress in the development of new vaccines and says this gives hope to overcome the virus.
“The not-so-good news is the severity of the pandemic and the negative economic consequences. We estimate a drop in global economic activity of 4.4 percent in 2020. We expect an incomplete and uneven improvement next year, with economic growth of the 5.2 percent, ”he writes.
Disconnected from the real economy
This growth comes with all the reserves and depends on countries cooperating and laying the foundations for a stronger and more robust economy for the 21st century.
“The rise of the infection is an important reminder that a sustainable economic recovery cannot be achieved anywhere if we do not defeat the pandemic everywhere. Public investment in treatment, testing and contact tracing is now more important than ever. writes the head of the IMF.
She notes that the world has implemented “one-time and synchronized” measures to support the global economy during the corona pandemic. The total value of fiscal policy measures and central bank liquidity is $ 12 billion.
Global debt, measured in terms of value creation (gross domestic product), has never been higher than it is now.
“The economic and financial uncertainty continues to be significant. The high price of securities indicates that financial markets are disconnected from the real economy and pose a deep and entrenched risk to stability, ”the IMF writes.
New records have been set in various equity markets, including in the US this week. In Japan, the Nikkei index on the Tokyo Stock Exchange has reached its highest level since 1992.
Extremely difficult trimester
Georgieva warns countries not to remove supportive measures prematurely.
“Many support measures, including cash transfers to families and expanded employment measures, have expired or will expire at the end of the year. This is happening at the same time that significant job losses are expected. Only in the sector world tourism, up to 120 million jobs are at risk, “according to the head of the IMF.
The international tourism sector is on the decline due to its closed borders. The aviation organization Iata recently warned of “catastrophic job losses” in 2021.
“The fourth quarter of 2020 will be extremely difficult and there is little indication that the first half of 2021 will be particularly good as long as borders are closed and quarantine requirements are maintained,” IATA Executive Director Alexandre de Juniac said in a press release.(Terms)Copyright Dagens Næringsliv AS and / or our suppliers. We would like you to share our cases via a link, which leads directly to our pages. Copying or other use of all or part of the content can only be done with written permission or as permitted by law. For more terms, see here.
