Less than a year ago he received the Nobel Peace Prize. Now Ethiopia is in a civil war.

– This could become the largest conflict in the world in 2020, says the Ethiopia expert.

“War is hell on earth. I know because I’ve been there. “

With these words, the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed, received the Peace Prize with pomp and splendor at the Oslo City Hall almost a year ago. This week he opened fire on his own people.

Several bombs are said to have been dropped on the Tigray region in the north of the country. The people who live there are Ethiopian residents.

With that, the country has plunged into a bloody civil war. This can have significant consequences. The entire African horn is now in danger of being destabilized.

Hiding behind the United States

– This is extremely, extremely serious, says Kjetil Tronvoll. He is a professor at Bjørknes University College and has been researching Ethiopia for 30 years.

The government of the capital Addis Ababa declared war on the state of Tigray this week. It is the only one of the eight states in the country that is not governed by the ruling party. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is in power.

“Our country has entered a war that we did not foresee. This war is shameful and makes no sense.” This was stated by General Berhanu Jula Gelacha at a press conference on Thursday. Tigray executives dismiss the government’s statements as unfathomable. They believe that they are now being “forced to obey.”

On Tuesday, the Ethiopian authorities declared that Tigray militants were trying to steal weapons from a military base. This is not documented. However, the country’s supreme governing bodies responded by opening fire on the region.

Several military targets in Tigray must have been destroyed, according to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Just before the attack, all communications in the area were cut off. No official deaths are known, but:

– It’s an active war. It is not known how many have died and been injured, but there are probably a few thousand so far, Tronvoll says.

At least 60 people were injured and six died during one of the attacks, according to MSF.

Tronvoll believes the timing of the attack was far from coincidental. He believes that the authorities in the capital Addis Ababa planned to enter the region in the shadow of the duel between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

“They knew very well that the eyes of the world community would be on the US presidential election,” he says.

He wants control, backed by an old enemy

But why is the country’s government cracking down on Tigray?

In September, local elections in the region were canceled by the Abiyan government as a result of the crown pandemic. Therefore, the TPLF and the region’s opposition parties stacked the elections on their own. It was not well received by the Addis Ababa authorities. The result was not recognized.

The government itself wants to take control of the area. Abiy believes that the TPLF is undermining his power. The party was offered to be part of the country’s party in 2019, but declined to join. Thus, the party is the only one that challenges the directive.

The region has great military resources. This despite the fact that the population only represents six percent of the country’s inhabitants. Military power dates back to the late 1990s, when Ethiopia and Eritrea were embroiled in bloody conflict.

With extensive military arsenals, the region is strong in defying the Prime Minister’s party.

Abiy has advisers around her who advocate for war. He has members in his party who want war and take back the Tigray territory, says Tronvoll.

Opinions divided by the population

On Saturday, the Addis Ababa government decided to dissolve the local government in Tigray. The attacks in the region are supported by neighboring Eritrea, which borders Tigray. The two countries have been bitter enemies for decades.

Abiy defends the attacks as necessary to restore law and order in the region. The TPLF leader accuses him of behaving like a dictator.

Inland, the population is divided by the attacks, according to the AP news agency. Several support attacks for abuse of power when the TPLF itself ruled. Most of the people who support the region are censored. Therefore, there is little information about what they think. Some have described the government’s actions as aggressive.

Reject negotiations

The leaders of the Tigray region want negotiations to resolve the conflict. Abiy said no to that.

– It is remarkable that a seated peace prize winner does not enter into a political dialogue when world leaders try to make this happen, says Tronvoll.

As the situation is now, he believes that it is difficult to find peaceful solutions.

Ethiopia is the country in Africa with the strongest military weapons box. In the absence of a peaceful dialogue, both the government and the TPLF have many resources to use. Both in the number of weapons and in the number of ground forces. The troops in Tigray number up to 250,000 men, according to the International Crisis Group.

– It is difficult to see positive scenarios, says Tronvoll.

– Violence and war are part of the political strategy. The parties must now have their confrontations on the battlefield. Enough soldiers must die before the parties realize that this cannot be won on the battlefield. Then thousands, if not tens of thousands of lives are lost.

– The biggest war in the world

And the conflict can quickly spread beyond its own borders. With this, the entire African horn is in danger of drastically destabilizing. Tronvoll targets these countries that can be withdrawn:

1. Ethiopian military forces have long been in Somalia. There, they have contributed to the neighboring country’s fight against the al-Shaabab terrorist group. The forces are now returning home to contribute to the conflict in their own country, according to AP.
2. Eritrea, which has its own agenda against Tigray, may also withdraw because the country is already involved.
3. Sudan has forces on the border with Tigray. It is unknown at this time what he will do after leaving office.
4. Neighboring Djibouti, home to several international military bases.

Tronvoll predicts that it could become a “completely real theater of war in the Horn of Africa.”

– It’s a pretty pale image. The civil war will probably soon become international. If not stopped, this will have the potential to become not only Africa’s largest war this year, but one of the world’s largest wars in 2020 in terms of troop size, refugees and humanitarian damage, Tronvoll concludes.