Ethiopia on the brink of civil war



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The Norwegian Refugee Council is deeply concerned about the escalation in Ethiopia, a country already exposed to massive displacement and great humanitarian distress, says the Secretary General of the Norwegian Refugee Council Jan Egeland in a press release.

“The increasing levels of conflict in the Tigray region threaten the immediate safety of hundreds of thousands of people,” he said.

Former US diplomat Payton Knopf cautions against underestimating the conflict. According to him, there can be battles between large and well-trained ground forces with heavy artillery.

– This is not Syria. This is not Yemen. It’s of an entirely different order of magnitude, Knopf says.

He believes that Ethiopia can be compared to the former Yugoslavia.

State of emergency

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, winner of the Nobel Peace Prize last year, has declared a state of emergency for the next six months due to the escalation.

He also says that there will be a military reaction against local authorities in the Tigray region, where a military camp was attacked overnight.

“The Popular Front for the Liberation of Tigray (TPLF) attacked a military camp in the region and tried to steal military equipment,” Abiy wrote in a post on social media.

– The last border is crossed. Power is now used as a last resort to save people and this country, adds the winner of the peace prize.

Egeland asks the Prime Minister to be careful.

“As the world is focused on the US elections, regional leaders and the wider world community must be vigilant and actively work to prevent Ethiopia from sliding into conflict,” he said.

Get details

There are few details about the attack mentioned in Tigray. It is also unclear what allocations the federal military forces have received, but analysts and diplomats warned that civil war between the federal forces and the TPLF could lead to violence.

The International Crisis Group describes the conflict, which is now breaking out, as the worst possible outcome for the country.

“It could put heavy pressure on an Ethiopian state that has already been hit by a number of serious political challenges, and it could also send shockwaves across the Horn of Africa and beyond,” the organization wrote.

A three-year wave of protests in 2018 brought the country’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to power. By then, the TPLF had dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades.

The country is also plagued by violent ethnic conflicts and, despite extensive democratic reforms, reports of human rights abuses remain under the Abiy government.

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