The choice is a warning

Understand The drama that can unfold in the United States from evening to Wednesday Norwegian time, we must travel back to the presidential election and Florida in 2000. Before all the votes were counted, the television channel NBC declared that the Vice President Al Gore had won the state. Later, the channel had to withdraw this, before Fox News later in the evening came out with the opposite conclusion: George W. Bush had won the state and therefore the elections.

Gore congratulated Bush on the victory, before he, too, changed his mind. The margin between the two in Florida was very thin, with reports of faulty voting machines. Gore exercised his right to demand the recount of certain districts, and it was likely that this could reverse the result. The Miami rally was underway when angry protesters from what is believed to be a Republican-organized action surrounded the office, shouting “voter fraud” and “stop the fraud.” There was no evidence of electoral fraud. The count stopped anyway. Later, first the highest local authority in Floria (Republican) and then a conservative majority in the Supreme Court (5 to 4), decided that the election be decided in favor of Bush.

The same ingredients are available and can be used in abundance this year too.

In the absence of a statement from television stations (which learned their lesson after the 2000 fade), Trump can take the lead himself. According to the leaks, Trump will have plans to declare himself the winner early on Election Day, before all mail-in votes have been counted. Therefore, he himself can start the same chain reaction that NBC started in 2000, with the subsequent controversy over the vote count and decision in the court system.

Trump has positioned himself to make the most of the opportunity. It exploits the tactics, to the highest power, that Republicans since Florida in 2000 have used: sealing the vote and systems that are believed to undermine their chances, such as voter fraud.

Voting by mail is believed to have a vote dominance for Biden, and Trump has already repeated for months – without the slightest evidence – that these votes will be associated with cheating. If the case ends up in the Supreme Court, Trump has secured a solid conservative majority with the appointment of Amy Coney Barrett a week ago.

Of course it is not clear when and how Trump will comment on the election result, but Trump’s statements throughout the election campaign make it highly likely that the result will be questioned.

This positioning would have been unthinkable just a few years ago, and it is terrifying. Trump praising local supporters in Texas for forcing a stop to a Biden campaign bus is one of countless examples of how the president is mobilizing with undemocratic tactics. In this way, he has also injected opposition to democratic rules among his followers. It can cause lasting damage to the country, regardless of the outcome of these elections. The oldest and most modern democracy, the most important baby of the Enlightenment, is in danger.

Trump is catalysts. However, the preconditions for the accident that is now occurring in the United States have to do with something else; growing economic inequalities and a society that has destroyed citizens’ opportunities for social mobility. The chaos in the United States is a warning to other democratic countries, including the European ones. The next few days will show whether this is completely wrong or whether American democracy is seriously damaged.