This is how Trump can still win – VG

Since Joe Biden secured the post of Democratic Party presidential nominee, he has held a solid lead over Trump in the vast majority of opinion polls.

But the excitement is far from over, says US researcher Hilmar Mjelde of the NORCE to VG research institute.

– I estimate that Trump’s probability is 30 percent. And it’s actually a very good opportunity. Presidents in office in modern times are often re-elected, historically speaking.

It is not just history that speaks of Trump’s victory. Together with Mjelde and American researcher Erik Mustad at the University of Agder, VG has mapped the many opportunities for Trump to continue as president of the United States.

Popularity under the radar

Biden’s leadership has also been shown in measurements in many of the inflection states, that is, states that can fall both ways. Just a week before the election, Biden was in the best position to beat a sitting president since Bill Clinton in 1992, sums up US researcher Mjelde.

But, such total superiority at the polls in the time just before Election Day, Democrats have experienced before. With a later bitter aftertaste.

Because even in 2016, it seemed that victory was assured against Trump. So bad could they take the statistics.

– It is methodically very challenging to model the electorate and what the voters really want to do at the polls. It’s like weather reports: they “predict” most of the time correctly, but not always, and the media often sub-communicates the uncertainty with which pollsters operate, Mjelde believes.

One should look at the average of the measurements and the trend, not a single measurement. So you have a good idea of ​​where the career is, explains the NORCE researcher.

Erik Mustad is studying precisely the average of the measurements now and sees a trend.

– Three or four days before the election, it seems that more commentators in the United States think that the chances of reelection are better than a few weeks ago. Although they may not be able to explain it politically. In many states with tipping, it’s also even, so it’s likely both can win, given that nothing unpredictable happens until Tuesday, says Professor Mustad.

Mjelde suspects that opinion polls since 2015 have failed to capture Trump’s full appeal. Therefore, he considers it likely that Trump’s support could be up to five percentage points higher than polls show, he says.

Three Success Factors

Therefore, there are several factors that can make the incumbent president remain, only in office, Mjelde believes. Here are three:

Greater support from the white working class or more Latinos

– The white working class are Trump’s main voters, and among them there is probably some untapped potential. Especially Pennsylvania, which is such an important seesaw state.

– Latino voters have proven to be quite open to Republicans, compared to other minority groups. Bush won approx. 40 percent of them in 2004, and there are indications that Trump may further increase support among voters of Latin American origin in this election, explains the researcher.

Unsafe voters should bet on Trump, like they did in 2016

– In 2016, we saw Trump win over insecure voters in recent days. That decided the choice. In 2020, on the other hand, there are fewer uncertainties: approx. six percent. Given the pandemic, the doubt likely won’t benefit Trump to the same extent this year, Mjelde believes.

3. Error of measurement: that the polls do not capture the full support of Trump

Pollsters have worked hard to correct the mistakes of 2016. At the time, they did not emphasize the white working class enough. However, this year there may be new measurement challenges that we don’t know about until after the election.

Additionally, there is a “built-in advantage” for Republican Trump, says researcher Mjelde, namely the two-party system.

– For half the country, it is simply not an option to vote for the other party, because the political difference between the parties is very large. So Trump can win because a lot of people think Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are left-wing radicals. Many voters don’t like Trump’s style, but believe he is granting them tax cuts and appointing conservative judges.

There is still a long way to go

Researcher Mjelde notes that there is still an important difference between Hillary’s fight against Trump and Bidens: Biden has led steadily throughout the year, something Hillary Clinton did not do in 2016. At the time, the measurements clearly fluctuated more, says the researcher.

– The great weakness is its miserable handling of the pandemic. Buchanon in the 1850s, Hoover in 1932 and Carter in 1980 show that voters punish presidents who fail to cope with crises, Mjelde believes.

Associate Professor Mustad makes the same point.

– Trump’s weakness is his denial that covid-19 is dangerous. His handling of the pandemic has clearly weakened voters’ confidence that they will be able to take appropriate steps to overcome the spread of the infection, he believes.

So what is Trump’s strength in the competition against Biden? asks VG.

– His way of talking to his main voters is his great strength. He is seen as the different president that many Americans want. Many Americans believe that he has done a lot for them and that this should continue for another four years. These nuances do not come out well enough in the Norwegian public, and in this country we understand little that such large groups of Americans can support it. But the economy was good and unemployment was falling, even before the pandemic, remember.

Mjelde mentions another factor x.

– Research shows that luck plays a role, indeed. Trump has proven time and again to be very lucky: He was a success in 2016, and soon he will be again.

The rush in particular may be Trump’s time to shine, he explains, noting that both former President Ford and President Bush took a clear approach in the end.

– We can never rule out a sitting president, says researcher Mjelde to VG.

– When do you think we know if Trump can win the election?

– The result in Florida can come quite early on election night. If Trump wins, he is in the highest degree. If you lose it, you are done.