– A toxic cocktail for the Norwegian krone – E24

In European equity markets, there is a wide drop on Thursday, with the German Dax index falling 3 percent.

In Asia, the major stock indices fell by around two percent in the morning, while here at home the Oslo Stock Exchange was down 1.33 percent. At the same time, the price of oil fell 2.90 percent on the day to $ 42.16.

– Market turmoil has increased considerably recently. We can expect it to continue in the future, says chief economist Erica Blomgren Dalstø at SEB.

– The risk and unrest do not benefit the Norwegian crown, he says.

Increased infection hampers oil prices

Wall Street equity markets fell on Wednesday after Finance Minister Steven Mnuchin said it would be difficult to implement a new crisis package for companies ahead of the November presidential election.

– The probability of a new crisis package in the US has been significantly reduced and over a longer period infection rates in Europe have increased so much that authorities are beginning to reintroduce stricter restrictions.

The UK, Germany and France, among others, have recently announced the introduction of stricter restrictions.

Increased restrictions and less economic stimulus from the US authorities are bad news for oil demand.

– It hinders growth prospects in the United States and will slow down the evolution of the service sector and the economy as a whole. Lower oil prices, he says.

– Together, it is a toxic cocktail for the Norwegian krone, says the chief economist.

The krona exchange rate has weakened by around 10 øre against the dollar and now costs NOK 9.34.

– Historically, the crown makes you miserable in the fourth quarter. Traditional seasonal patterns this year have not been as strong this year due to the pandemic, but they still support the weakening we see in the crown.

– The crisis package is very important

In the United States Congress, Republicans and Democrats have disagreed on the amount and structure of the next crisis package. Mnuchin said that “individual cases are still very far apart.”

– There is agreement that he wants new stimuli, but not how much or what the crisis package should include. Yesterday’s message from Mnuchin interprets the market as meaning guarding the elections, Dalstø says.

The White House has proposed a $ 1.8 trillion rescue package, which Democrats believe is too little.

– A crisis package for the US economy is very important for the world economy and oil demand. The recovery of the economy has been driven largely by household consumption. Consumption has returned to pre-virus outbreak levels thanks to state cash payments, Dalstø says at SEB.