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New figures and analysis in recent weeks have confirmed what many assumed: The Corona crisis has led to a massive decrease in pollution and CO₂ emissions.
In the EU and UK, CO₂ emissions from electricity production fell 39% in April, according to an analysis by expert group Ember, published on the Carbon Brief website. The decrease was observed in relation to the same period last year.
India’s CO₂ emissions fell 30 percent, estimates the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea). The decline in China in February is believed to have been 25 percent.
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Sharp drop in road traffic
Abrupt falls probably also occurred in many other countries that were “closed” to prevent the spread of infection.
Road traffic fell sharply, and the decline in air traffic has been even more dramatic. Closed factories in many places led to lower energy consumption and dramatically reduced CO 2 emissions from coal and gas power plants.
Emissions will gradually increase once the restrictions are lifted, and this has already happened in China. However, the crown pandemic will have a significant effect on total emissions in 2020.
Global CO 2 emissions will drop almost 8 percent this year, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
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Historical decline
8 percent may not sound very dramatic. But something similar has never been observed before since the industrial revolution of the 18th and 19th centuries.
“The emission reduction is the largest in human history,” says Tore Furevik, who heads the Bjerkness Center for Climate Research in Bergen.
In addition to the IEA estimates, it points to other forecasts that also indicate that the emission drop in 2020 will be between 5 and 10 percent.
Previously, there were short-term dropout rates during the economic depression in the 1930s, after World War II, during the oil crisis of 1980, and after the financial crisis in 2008. But the effect now appears to be more powerful. .
Still can’t be measured
However, although emissions have decreased significantly over a limited period, this is so far not visible in measurements of CO₂ in the atmosphere.
Instead, CO₂ levels in the atmosphere continue to rise. And if this year’s emissions drop 8 percent, 92 percent will continue in a straight line.
Although the drop in emissions is historically large, it probably won’t even be noticeable in air measurements.
– The effect will be less than natural variations, Furevik tells NTB.
What is needed to limit global warming is to permanently control emissions. After all, a prerequisite is to judge a major transformation of the world’s energy production.
Furevik notes that renewable energy has become much more competitive in recent years. And although coal and oil combustion is declining sharply in 2020, the IEA expects continued growth in the use of renewable energy.
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